Thoughts on production, alienation, and ideology

Month: August 2022 (Page 2 of 2)

Organizing for Power Training

Over the course of May and June of this year, I attended a set of training sessions called Organizing for Power. The Rosa Luxemburg Foundation does the trainings, with Jane McAlevey serving as the lead trainer.

Overall, it’s a good training in certain practical matters of organizing. I’d recommend it. For the most part, they base the training on McAlevey’s popular books about union organizing. I’ve written about those books several times in the past, including a post on key lessons and a post on some problems and issues with McAlevey’s notion of an ‘organic leader.’

Does the course impart any key new lessons a person can’t gain by reading McAlevey’s books? Not really. But they structure the training around reinforcing lessons and practicing them. And not to mention helping people work through their ‘bias’ in favor of activists. Many of the fellow students organize within their own unions and social orgs. These things alone make the training worthwhile.

For readers looking to put theory into practice, I’d say do the training! I think the training could serve as a starting point to figuring out how to apply lessons to your own workplace or org. But I’d recommend balancing alongside astute critiques of the model.

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MLB: Is the 50-Game Rule Legit?

An old baseball proverb says you shouldn’t check the MLB standings before Memorial Day. In my own version of this, I call it the 50-Game Rule. And while one might formulate it in a nuanced way, we can summarize it quickly. Don’t check the standings before your team plays 50 games!

Conveniently, that happens sometime around Memorial Day. And I use it every season to evaluate the Yankees.

However, I recently read the book Extra Innings, published by Baseball Prospectus. It covers stats-based answers to many of the common questions baseball fans and analysts ask. Among other questions, they asked how many games a team needs to play for us to predict its final record.

The answer: only 17 games! After 17 games, you can predict a team’s final record better than chance. But in order to get much more in-depth predictive value – in order to predict a team’s final record more accurately than looking at its past couple of seasons – the team needs to play 48 games.

Notably that hits very close to the 50-Game Rule. And so, the rule still works. More or less. And, of course, as a Yankees fan, I’m not interested only in predicting their final record. I want to know whether they’re a World Series contender. Surely that requires a larger number of games.

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Can Democrats Win Iowa in 2022?

iowa democrats win 2020

Here’s the short answer to the title of this post: No.

But for a slightly longer answer, I’ll point out that many things could happen. Kim Reynolds could get caught driving drunk while cheating on her husband. Chuck Grassley could die from old age. And so on. But assuming nothing outrageous happens, Democrats won’t win the major federal or statewide races this fall. They will lose Iowa in 2022. Normal campaigning and GOTV efforts won’t be enough to win.

Incidentally, wealthier Democratic donors and party officials already know this. It’s a big part of why donors haven’t given as much money as usual by this point. A few progressives in the state have even criticized Democrats for ‘throwing in the towel.’

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