Base and Superstructure

Alienation, autonomy, and ideology

Election Predictions: 2026 Edition

The left didn’t have much skin in the game in 2024. Few of our candidates were on the ballot. And the Democrats chose to turn to the center-right for its votes. 2026 forms an interesting contrast.

DSA candidates, other leftists, and progressive Democrats dominated the headlines during the primaries. DSA bagged several key House primaries, and even a Senate primary. This means we’ll be paying close attention to how these candidates do, partly in order to gauge the success of DSA in its political goals.

DSA even provided us with a handy map of its endorsed candidates. I’ll be watching it on election night.

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Why I’m Voting ‘No’ on the New Jail

We’re a week away from the November election. In Johnson County, Iowa, our most important vote concerns the proposal for a bond to build a new jail. And it’s long past time for me to say a word about it.

I’m voting ‘no’ on the proposal, and I’ll say why. I’ll finish by critically analyzing the arguments from both the ‘yes’ and ‘no’ campaigns.

Neither side has argued well. Maybe that’s par for the course. But to me, it’s more evidence of the degeneration of our politics into subcultural signaling.

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‘Harm Reduction Voting’ is Just a Bad Analogy

I’ve taken several cracks at common arguments progressives and leftists use to justify ‘voting blue no matter who.’ This includes, of course, the harm reduction argument. I even threw in an argument against a mutated form of the harm reduction argument, i.e., the odious ‘privilege argument.’

I’m satisfied with my previous work on the topic. The posts I linked above adequately address the intellectual basis for harm reduction voting arguments. But they dont quite hit what’s so irksome about these arguments. They don’t hit why ‘harm reduction voting’ so annoying to me and psychologically satisfying to many progressives.

So, that’s the topic I’ll hit today. I’ll cover what’s deeply out of order about the harm reduction argument for voting Democratic.

And it’s this: the argument is grounded in a fatally flawed analogy.

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Does Voting Democratic Improve ‘Organizing Conditions’?

Six years ago, I covered several of the arguments some leftists use to justify their decision to vote Democratic. In that series, I looked at arguments for the conclusion that we should vote Democratic because Democrats create better ‘organizing conditions’ than Republicans. Angela Davis* stands out prominently among these leftists, arguing for the need to avoid the (in her view) fascist organizing conditions found under the GOP.

In fact, these arguments serve as a psychologically satisfying excuse for voting for candidates of a party that opposes socialism at its core. The arguments carry just enough of a veneer of Marxist concern for historical and material conditions that it makes us forget its actual material impact. Namely, they allow the Democratic Party to march to the right and take its left flank for granted.

In the earlier article, I pointed out that the term ‘organizing conditions’ picks out a complicated set of things. Democrats are better than Republicans on policy. Under them, the left can push for incremental, positive change. But motivation is far trickier. It’s usually easier to recruit new leftists under Republican power. And no Republican created more leftists than Donald Trump.

There’s another deep flaw, however, with the ‘organizing conditions’ argument. And this one cuts directly at the heart of its usefulness as an argument about how we should vote.

It’s this: utter unpredictability. We simply don’t know which presidential candidates will create better organizing conditions for the left. It depends on factors outside of our control and not knowable for months – even years! – after the election.

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