Election Predictions: 2018 Edition

Source: https://www.deviantart.com/trish2/art/Crystal-Ball-2-48410126

Let’s predict tomorrow’s US election!

First, I’m not a pollster or scientist. I can only stand on the shoulders of giants.

And so this is really only for entertainment value. I’ll say a bit about where I think things are nationally, and then about where things are in Iowa.

National Election

Nationally, I think Democrats will win the House. Most groups doing predictions are a bit cautious about this, and I think they’re a bit too cautious. Most groups are calling for 200-210 Democratic safe seats, 170-180 Republican safe seats, and everything else in play.

That’s fine, as far as it goes. If your goal is to not be wrong, these predictions get the job done. Democrats will not win fewer than 200 seats. Republicans will (probably) not win fewer than 170. And most of these groups believe they got burned by Trump’s win in 2016, so they’re cautious this time.

But we can do better than this. I think Nate Silver’s approach at 538 is more effective. Silver recognizes that the House elections are greatly impacted by national mood. There will be some close races that groups like Politico fail to notice. My own Congressional district, IA-2, switched parties in exactly these circumstances in 2006.

So here’s my prediction. Democrats will win the House with about 235 seats. You want a range? Let’s say 225-260. I could be wrong, but I think the chances of my range being wrong are pretty low. Not zero, as unlikely events sometimes happen.

The Senate? I really have no idea. There are too many close races to say for sure. Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas could all go either way. Let’s say the Senate will stay in GOP hands by a 51-49 count, and I’ll admit that this is a total guess on my part.

Iowa Election

Here’s who I think will win Iowa’s four congressional districts, in order of certainty: Dave Loebsack, Abby Finkenhauer, Steve King, and Cindy Axne.

Loebsack is a lock in IA-02, and has been a lock for a long time. He’ll win. Finkenhauer consistently leads polls in IA-01, and early voting numbers look good for Democrats. It would be a big surprise if she loses to Rod Blum.

Cindy Axne enjoys only a small lead in the polls in IA-03, and the race could go either way. I’m betting the national wave carries her over. But as much as I’d love to see Steve King go down in IA-04, it’s a very Republican district and a tall order. I think King probably pulls it out. The fact that it’s one of the less certain of the four races is itself remarkable.

The governor’s race in Iowa is pretty close, and will probably stay close. I think Fred Hubbell has the better chance to win. So I’ll predict Hubbell as the winner. Ann Selzer’s two most recent polls shows Hubbell with a slight lead, and I’m inclined to go with that. Nate Silver’s forecasting model is much stronger on Hubbell, showing him with an 85% chance of victory. I think that’s a tad high, but I agree he’s more likely than not to win.

Democrats could, in theory, win the Iowa House, but that’s unlikely. If Hubbell wins the election, he’ll probably face a Republican state legislature. He’s already a center-right candidate, and would become more firmly center-right in the face of a GOP legislature. Rollback of harmful anti-union legislation is rather unlikely. I predict Hubbell will be a one-term governor who doesn’t accomplish much. If he wins, which isn’t entirely certain.

What are the Stakes?

Many people get election fever about this time of year, and they inevitably exaggerate the importance of elections.

But this doesn’t mean the election is unimportant, either. A Democratic victory in the House will prevent the Trump administration from moving major legislation. But, admittedly, Trump might not move any major legislation anyway. Trump practices a form of identitarianism that borders on nihilism, and passing legislation isn’t central to his politics.

I wouldn’t put my faith in total inaction on his part, though. Trump and the GOP could always try to pass a new tax cut or anti-immigrant legislation. A Democratic House would probably block all that.

State elections are likelier to have immediate consequences. The Iowa GOP wants to dismantle the state pension system. They’re looking to further restrict healthcare access. And they could always pass more restrictive anti-union legislation. A Democratic Governor would block this. A fully Democratic state legislature could rollback the disastrous current session.

As always, I’d advise readers to go out and join a local group doing good work in your community. Organizing is more important than voting. But you can do both.