Political parties in the U.S. are huge. They put together large coalitions with enormous platforms. As a result, they take on many popular issues and a few unpopular ones. Given these facts, we might think each party has a worst political issue. You know, something that drags them down and prevents them from building larger coalitions.
That’s what I’ll look at in this post. What’s the worst political issue for each party? I think the question has an answer, and I’ll defend one for both Republicans and Democrats.
With that preamble finished, here’s my proposal for each party. For Republicans, the worst political issue is balanced budgets, and for Democrats, it’s gun control. I’ll take a look at the politics behind the two ‘worst political issue’ cases. We can see both the polling evidence and the underlying politics at play.
Republicans: Balanced Budgets
Republicans pounded the table for years – decades, even – demanding balanced budgets. During both the Clinton and Obama Administrations, they objected to every Democratic spending proposal on the grounds that it would increase deficits and debt.
On paper, the public likes balanced budgets. At least, it thinks it does. The Roper Center documents decades of public opinion polling on the matter. And people say they want the federal government to balance its budget.
In (apparent) line with public opinion, Republicans sometimes introduce balanced budget legislation. They did so, for example, in 2018. And then they promptly lost – and lost badly – in the next Congressional election. While they didn’t lose entirely as a result of this legislation, the legislation didn’t help them.
There we find the rub. The public supports balanced budgets in the abstract, but it strongly opposes the things we’d have to do in order to actually balance the budget. That difference makes it their worst political issue. To oversimplify federal policy, there are two ways to balance a budget: increase taxes or cut spending (or both). Republicans reflexively oppose all tax increases, and no one wants the government to cut their services.
And so, despite what it says it wants at first glance, the public doesn’t really want balanced budgets. At least, it doesn’t want them in any way the political parties want to carry out.
Democrats: Gun Control
Gun control has figured as a key part of the Democratic platform for many years. They passed the Brady Act and an assault weapons ban in the 1990s. The tide turned against them over the course of the next couple of decades, but Democrats still press hard for gun control. They especially do so after prominent shootings.
As with the GOP and balanced budgets, the public appears to agree with them on gun control. Generic polling shows most Americans favor additional gun control measures. In the abstract, that is.
But – as with the GOP and balanced budgets – appearances deceive Democrats, making it their worst political issue. This is the case for a couple of reasons. First, most Democratic gun control ideas don’t work. To make the ideas work, they’d need to escalate them to such a degree that the courts would rule the laws unconstitutional. But second, and more important, gun control opponents feel far more strongly about the issue.
Most gun control supporters live in low crime areas – largely suburbs – and support gun control due more to cultural difference than any burning need to solve gun crime. People who actually live in high crime areas, by contrast, focus on issues like poverty relief or health care. Gun control opponents often own guns, want to keep those guns, and/or feel culturally attacked by gun control supporters. Gun control supporters would vote Democratic whether or not Democrats take action on gun control. Many gun control opponents, by contrast, might consider voting Democratic if not for the issue of guns.
That’s not a prize-winning recipe for Democrats. They don’t win any new voters with it. This is what groups like Everytown for Gun Safety miss when they promote polls showing the public on their side.
One Party Learned More Than The Other On Their Worst Political Issue
The thing is, Democrats often call out Republicans for hypocrisy on balanced budgets. They note that Republican Presidents like George W. Bush and Donald Trump increased debt via their tax cuts. They point out that Republicans really only care about debt under Democratic Presidents.
Well, duh. That’s because Republicans have largely caught on to the fact that most people don’t actually want balanced budgets. So, they pay lip service to the policy without (in most cases) genuinely pushing for it.
In some ways, that’s just smart politics. Democrats might want to take a page from that book when thinking about gun control. It’s long past time for them to come up with ways to prevent the GOP from pounding them into the dirt over the issue.
