I’m starting another round of election predictions with a bit of dread. Not because the election is a particularly uncertain one (though it is). And not because this election presents the possibility of another Trump administration (though it does).
Rather, my sense of dread comes from the fact that the left hardly has any skin in the game.
Democrats have long catered to moderate voters. But the Kamala Harris campaign really cranked this trend into overdrive. She campaigns to the right on issues like immigration. And she has wrapped her campaign around winning over so-called ‘Never Trump’ Republicans.
In other words, Harris campaigns with roughly the politics of a Bob Dole or Mitt Romney. Maybe she won’t govern that way if she wins – though she might. But the mere fact that she thinks she can get away with this shows the relative powerlessness of the political left in the U.S.
Political Conditions
On that happy note, let’s talk about background political conditions in the U.S.!
In short, the debate over Donald Trump has pulled U.S. politics well to the right. This contrasts interestingly to the period from 2018 to 2021, when the left was ‘ascendant’ to some degree or another. We’re well into a reactionary period, and this shows in our elections.
Pollsters find this quick turn of events particularly difficult. And it has changed the way they do their work.
As Nate Cohn described it in the New York Times, pollsters grapple with whether to compare the 2024 election cycle to 2022 or to 2020. Are we in a situation of massive participatory politics where the Democrats will win the national popular vote easily but struggle in battleground states and Congressional races (2020)? Or are we in a situation where participation tails off and the popular vote is nearly tied, but Democrats hold their traditional territories (2022)?
Pollsters have responded to this situation by heavily massaging their data – applying more vigorous likely voter screens and screening questions. This seems to have the effect of adding to Trump’s support in the polls.
But it’s a question for us and not just for pollsters. Deciding who wins the election – both for President and for Congress – will depend, in part, on where we come down on these questions.
The deeper issue with the polls, of course, is that they’re tied nearly everywhere. They show a slim Harris lead in the popular vote and a virtual tie in the 7 battleground states.
This all leaves us with our work cut out for us.
National Election Predictions
Despite all the ties, the polls usually miss by about 3-5 points per election cycle. For the purposes of prediction, then, it’s a matter of guessing which side will do a few points better than the polls say.
But there’s a complicating factor this time, and it’s that many pollsters seem to be running heavy screens over their data to account for so-called “shy Trump voters” from 2016 and 2020. And if that’s the case, the polls could miss by a potentially much larger margin.
So could the polls be selling Harris short? We saw evidence of what that might look like when Ann Selzer released her deservedly well regarded Iowa Poll a couple of days ago. It shows Harris doing shockingly well in Iowa. And if that’s true, Harris is going to have a very good night.
Ultimately, I think these considerations will benefit Harris, but I’m far from certain. It’s the least certain I’ve been in any election cycle since 2004. But I’m going to go with it.
My official prediction? Harris wins the popular vote comfortably. It’ll be by 4-6 points, and she wins all 7 battleground states. My electoral map is posted below, where I’m predicting a 319-219 electoral college win for Harris.
That said, I’m uncertain about all 7 battlegrounds (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin). And I’m really uncertain about Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
As for Congressional races, I suspect we’ll see a split between the House and the Senate in this round. I predict Democrats will win the House 230-208, and Republicans will win the Senate 51-49.
However, I’m far from sure about that. Congressional results will once again depend to a large degree on presidential turnout. It’s quite likely we’ll see a solid shift in one direction or the other. If Trump wins the White House, he’ll almost certainly carry with him majorities in both the House and the Senate. And if Harris wins the White House by more than 6 points, she’ll probably carry at least 235 House members and stand a fighting chance of getting 50 Senators in the Democratic camp.
Iowa Election Predictions
So, that’s it for the national predictions. Let’s turn to the state of Iowa.
I realize I typically include a prediction for Iowa. But that has become all too easy these days. While 3 of our 4 Congressional races are nominally competitive, Democrats have been fighting a losing battle in all of them since their 2018 sweep.
As with 2022, I think Republicans will sweep all 4 Congressional districts.
The best chances for Democrats come in IA-03 and IA-01, but I think they’ll fall short even there. That said, a strong performance from Harris could drag Democratic candidates across the finish line. And the Iowa Poll gave us reason to believe that could happen. However, even if it does, it’ll probably be short lived.
Until Democrats figure out how to rehabilitate their brand in Iowa, the GOP will continue dominating the state. Even if they lose a race or two this time.
Final Thoughts
As I said in the beginning of this post, Harris’s decision to aim her campaign at disaffected Republicans has put the left in a difficult position. But as far as Harris’s campaign itself is concerned, she has run a historically impressive one. Just about anyone who follows federal electoral campaigns calls Harris’s campaign one of the best they’ve seen.
There’s emerging evidence that Harris could win big, but it’s far from a certainty.
So what gives? Why is this election so close? How could Trump still win, despite his personal unpopularity and his far less effective campaign?
Lots of Americans will take the wrong lesson from this situation. They’ll cite racist or misogynistic tendencies within U.S. voters, or some such social force. But that’s not it. Indeed, had Democrats run a boring old white male (like the one currently in the White House), they’d have lost badly in this election.
Rather, the basic political conditions in the U.S. in 2024 aren’t favorable for Democrats. I cited those conditions above – things like the reactionary turn in the U.S. since 2021, widespread economic difficulties despite (or, in some cases, because of) our official economic growth, inflation, and so on.
It would’ve been difficult for any Democrat to win in 2024. Harris put the Democrats in a much better position to win than Joe Biden would have.
We’ll just have to see whether that’s good enough.
N.B.
Readers can find my past election predictions posts here: 2022, 2020, 2018.
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