Source: Democracy Chronicles (https://www.flickr.com/photos/democracychronicles/42715589844)
Jacobin and Current Affairs are in war mode. Their enemy? The centrist wing of the Democratic Party. Their lone, brave soldier? Bernie Sanders. It’s all hands on deck for Bernie 2.0.
At times, they insist that Bernie run in 2020. At other times, it’ s more nuanced. Nathan J. Robinson, in particular, presents Bernie less as the shining knight of Jacobin and more as the best progressive option who also, by the way, happens to have the best chance of defeating Trump.
With Elizabeth Warren officially in the presidential race, it’s all the more pressing an issue.
As leftists, what should we make of all this? Is Sanders the only choice? If so, does that mean we all have to jump on board?
My answers to those questions are: Less than you might think. Probably. Nope.
Bernie’s Ideology
Sanders’s ideology is surprisingly difficult to pin down. He claims to be a ‘democratic socialist’, and he began his political life as a member of the Young People’s Socialist League.
I was a member of YPSL’s executive committee about 15 years ago, so I have a soft spot for all that. But Sanders is no socialist. At least he isn’t on any reading of the term ‘socialist’ that sets anti-capitalism and a socialist, democratic economy as its core feature.
Sanders builds his ideology on a series of policy proposals that I’ve called the ‘Sandersista Trinity’: a $15 minimum wage, universal health care, and free college. More recently, Sanders and company have worked a ‘Green New Deal’ into the vision.
Some actual socialists, such as Jacobin’s Meagan Day, correctly point out that programs like this are things socialists want to use as an early transition into socialism. I agree, and I’ve argued as much. But there’s little evidence that Sanders himself sees it this way. As far as I can tell, these are end points for Sanders, not early stages of socialism.
Consequently, Bernie’s ideology is something like a center-left, souped-up New Deal liberalism. Calling it ‘social democracy’ would be fair. But, to be clear, this alone places him squarely to the left of Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and the folks likely running in 2020 (Biden, Booker, Harris, O’Rourke, and even Warren). It’s enough to make him the best option in any likely Democratic primary field.
Bernie’s Chances
But can he win? Maybe, though he’ll face a new set of challenges this time other than the ones he faced in 2016. The primary field will be larger this time, and Bernie will not be looking at a one-on-one race against an establishment figure. Some of these issues will be operational. His staffers might work for someone else. And others will be ideological, as some of his wealthier liberal backers may back a more standard liberal.
What’s making more left-wing Sandersistas nervous, especially those who dislike Beto O’Rourke, is the fact that much of the appeal of Sanders comes from cultural relevance rather than ideology.
Sanders had a certain cool factor in 2016. He was the contrarian Grandpa running against Lord Baby Boomer who represented all that was making life difficult for millennials. But will Sanders have the cool factor in 2020? Beto seems more trendy now.
In 2016, Sanders drew much of his support from students. This is, of course, a rather transient group. Most of the people who were college students in 2016 won’t be students in 2020. And so Sanders faces two issues here: can he retain his 2016 college supporters after they’ve left college, and can he win the next group of students?
Maybe he can, and maybe he can’t. We know that college students are rather fickle in their voting behavior.
Bernie and Race
After the retention question, the next question is expansion. Sanders won young black and Latinx voters in the 2016 primaries, but Clinton pounded him among black voters in general by 50 points and Latinx voters in general by 30 points.
Sanders doesn’t need to outright win the black vote in the 2020 primaries, but he can’t get pounded by 30-50. And he has made some progress on this front. He’s engaging with black voters. He’s making connections with black communities and black politicians. His favorability rating among non-white voters is very high.
One common line of criticism of Sanders is that he ignores race or otherwise pushes race to the side in his message, which centers economic inequality. Marcus Johnson is probably the most prolific defender of this claim. Johnson defends the claim on race-identitarian grounds, particularly ones that center upper middle income black American interests and establishment Democratic politicians.
I think the truth here is complicated. Sanders certainly puts his foot in his mouth from time to time. His criticism of ‘identity politics’ shows a clear misunderstanding of Trump’s base. With that said, Sanders’s plan for racial justice is much better than that of any Democrat who has competitively run for President. Or any Democrat who will likely run for President in 2020, as his defenders point out. He points out the systemic issues involved in racial justice in a way that, say, Hillary Clinton does not.
Black Democrats are Less Liberal Than White People Think
The core problem, then, is that Bernie didn’t connect with black voters and Latinx voters. That’s a problem he can fix. But this strategy has its limits. He can limit his losses among black voters in the 2020 primaries, but winning outright is a taller order.
Why? Because black Democrats are far less liberal than people (especially white people) think they are. The general stereotype is that because black voters vote Democratic, black Democrats must be very liberal.
However, that’s completely false. What the evidence shows is that black Democrats are less liberal than white Democrats. For example, Pew Research surveys show that while 55% of white Democrats identify as liberal, only 41% of black Democrats do the same.
While the stereotype says that because black voters are Democratic they must be liberals, it’s actually quite the opposite: because almost all black voters are Democratic, black Democrats must be less liberal.
The reason for this relates to racism in America. White voters have choices. If you’re a white conservative or moderate, you can vote Republican. The whites left over, who vote Democratic, are therefore very liberal. Black voters, by contrast, don’t really have a choice. Even though black Americans, as a group, are only slightly less conservative than white Americans, the Republican Party has branded itself the party of racism. And so black moderates and conservatives still vote Democratic.
For a black conservative, it’s either the party you disagree with, or it’s the party of racism. Not really much of a choice. Consequently, black moderates and conservatives flee to the Democratic Party.
Black moderates and conservatives preferred Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders for the obvious reason that she was the better fit. These are votes Sanders isn’t going to win in 2020, either.
A Reorientation: Why Bernie 2016?
I’d invite leftists to perform an exercise here. If you backed Sanders in 2016, why’d you do it? And where have you gone from there? Was it the Sandersista Trinity? Was it the cool factor? The message of change? A platform you could believe in? His adoption of the ‘democratic socialism’ label?
Personally, what I liked about the 2016 campaign was that it drew attention to socialism and grassroots organizing. And grassroots organizing has grown since 2016. The DSA‘s explosion of new members and activity is a particularly visible sign of that.
So, for me, it’s a question of whether a 2020 run would have the same impact. I suspect it won’t, though I’m not sure. There’s plenty of room to grow and mature the organizations that grew out of 2016. It’s unclear to me that actively supporting a new presidential campaign would help those efforts, though I’ll probably caucus for Sanders if he’s running again in the 2020 Iowa caucus.
I won’t hold it against Jacobin and Current Affairs too much if they’re spilling ink for Bernie for the next couple of years. But I suspect they have larger fish to fry as well.
An Alternative to Bernie 2.0
Let’s conclude.
The main alternative to Bernie 2.0 is the main alternative to electoralism in general: organizing to make change in the only way change is ever made. That is to say via non-electoral grassroots activism.
If Bernie 2.0 helps with that, then good for Bernie 2.0. If it doesn’t, then Bernie, we hardly knew ye.
