Alienation, autonomy, and ideology

Category: Elections (Page 11 of 18)

These are posts on elections from the blog Base and Superstructure. Topics include international elections, American elections, and local Iowa elections. There’s a particular focus on describing and explaining leftist electoral results.

Is Bernie Sanders Electable?

Some Democrats don’t like Bernie Sanders, and they’re not shy about expressing it. They think his negative campaigning cost Hillary Clinton the 2016 election. They think his online supporters – the dreaded ‘Bernie Bros‘ – display misogyny, racism, and authoritarian tendencies. But the most common reason – especially as of late – is that they think he’s not electable. He can’t beat Trump, so the story goes, because he’s too divisive, his policies are ‘pie in the sky’ or ‘far left,’ he has skeletons in his closet, and/or he’s too old.

Whew! I’m setting aside the question of the merits of most of these charges. Some, e.g., the one about costing Clinton the 2016 election, we can dismiss as false and widely debunked. Others are more complicated. I’m also setting aside the question of whether Bernie can still win the nomination. Nor is this a post of evangelism. Instead what I’m doing here is addressing the ‘electable’ question. Is Bernie Sanders electable? And how can we tell?

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How Elizabeth Warren Lost

elizabeth warren lost angelic photo

Elizabeth Warren 2020 began in 2015. A coalition of liberals and progressives lifted her up as the right person to lead an electoral coalition. Why? Her bona fides as a consumer advocate and legislative leader – and her broad appeal across the Democratic Party – suggested her as the champion of a movement to push Obama’s Democratic Party to the left without leaving the Obama coalition behind.

Her 2020 campaign aimed to do just that. But the terrain changed. It was no longer a unity between Obama and the myriad forces of the shattered electoral left. It was a surging electoral left – united by the 2016 Bernie Sanders campaign – and the Biden/Clinton/Obama ‘party establishment.’ Warren promised to combine the progressivism of Sanders with the practicality of a campaign that could mobilize Democratic voters and win over a bit of ‘Middle America.’

Or so the theory went. We know it didn’t work out that way, and I’ll discuss why. Here are two major factors I see contributing to her loss. And one factor some Elizabeth Warren defenders cite that I’ll argue wasn’t really much of a factor.

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The Worst Democratic Candidate Revisited

worst democratic candidate buttigieg

Back in the summer, I came up with a scale and rating system to evaluate each of the Democratic candidates and figure out which one is the worst. You can find that here. I think it’s time to revisit the question of the worst Democratic candidate. Joe Biden ‘won’ the previous results. Pete Buttigieg followed him somewhat distantly as the second worst.

Why was Biden the worst candidate? Some of it’s his platform, though several other candidates – notably Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar – are just as bad on platform. The biggest difference was that Biden had a great chance of winning, and so it was the combination of bad platform and strong chance of winning that made him the worst.

After Biden’s faceplant in Iowa and New Hampshire, his chances have gone down. And so, I thought running this idea again might change things. Biden might no longer be the worst candidate. Maybe now it’s…Buttigieg? Someone else?

Let’s find out.

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Who Are People of Color Voting For?

Iowa and New Hampshire have voted already, and Nevada’s coming up! With a large field and more attention to diversity in the Democratic Party, we’ve heard a lot of talk about who people of color support. Some people – notably Julián Castro – point out the  whiteness of the early states.

Castro’s right, but Iowa and New Hampshire aren’t 100% white. There are lots of people of color in each state, and they voted. Who did people of color vote for in Iowa and New Hampshire? And do those numbers predict how people of color will vote in other states?

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Who Can (Still) Win the Democratic Nomination?

About a month ago, I wrote a post arguing only 8 people can still win the Democratic nomination.

Only?! For such a late date, 8 was a lot! By this point in 2016, it was down to (probably) Hillary Clinton or (very unlikely) Bernie Sanders. And the Iowa Caucus traditionally winnows the field even further. Did it do so this time? How about New Hampshire?

The early states provided some mess and some clarity. And so, I’ll ask: who can still win the Democratic nomination?

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