Alienation, autonomy, and ideology
These are posts on elections from the blog Base and Superstructure. Topics include international elections, American elections, and local Iowa elections. There’s a particular focus on describing and explaining leftist electoral results.
About a month ago, I wrote a post arguing only 8 people can still win the Democratic nomination.
Only?! For such a late date, 8 was a lot! By this point in 2016, it was down to (probably) Hillary Clinton or (very unlikely) Bernie Sanders. And the Iowa Caucus traditionally winnows the field even further. Did it do so this time? How about New Hampshire?
The early states provided some mess and some clarity. And so, I’ll ask: who can still win the Democratic nomination?
Contrary to even the safest predictions, there was no winner on the night of the Iowa Caucus. Oh, there was a winner. The next day. In fact, Iowa was so generous it gave us two potential winners: Bernie Sanders in the popular vote and Pete Buttigieg in the delegate count. Or maybe Bernie in both. We’ll see. But the entire Iowa Caucus fiasco blunted its impact.
Let’s take a look at how the Iowa Caucus will impact the next steps.
There are many reasons to love Iowa: corn, bacon, cold winters, lovely people. One of my favorite reasons is the New Pioneer Food Co-op. Oh, and we get to vote first. Yes, that last one is controversial, causing much wailing and gnashing of teeth. Much of it justified. But I’m not here to discuss fairness in the nomination process. I’ve already done that. Today, we Iowans vote (actually, caucus). I’m voting for Bernie Sanders. When your time comes, I think you should, too.
Here’s why.
Last July, a Silent Generation Vermont senator from Brooklyn met with a Millennial Bronx rapper. In a Detroit nail salon, Bernie Sanders and Cardi B talked about a lot of issues. But the conversation hinged on young people, the issues they face, and how they can get involved in electoral politics.
In his 2016 run for president, Sanders earned his reputation as the candidate of young people. It was that election where Cardi B first noticed Sanders, instructing listeners to ‘vote for Daddy Bernie, bitch.’ From the middle of the country to the coasts, Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton again and again among voters under 40. And he’s earning that reputation again in the 2020 cycle. In the most recent polling, Sanders leads young voters by 17 (HarrisX/The Hill), 21 (YouGov/Economist), and 21 (Quinnipiac) points. When young people vote, Bernie Sanders wins. And more broadly, when young people vote, social democracy wins. So, why didn’t Bernie win in 2016? And why is he still running a bit behind Joe Biden in 2020?
Let’s think about this by looking at the Iowa problem.
We’re at the final debate before the primaries begin. At this point, our question is no longer ‘who’s in the race, and what are they saying?’. Rather, it’s ‘who can still win the Democratic nomination?’. The time for candidates to make their case is mostly over, and the time to start voting is near.
The Democrats started with about 25 candidates, and now they’re down to 13. 13! It still seems like too many for January 2020. Even now, I say it’s too early to predict the winner. But it’s not too early to start making some cuts. And so, I’ll start not with the question of who will win the Democratic nomination, but rather the question of who can win it. Among the 13 remaining candidates, which ones have a notably nonzero chance of victory?
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