Alienation, autonomy, and ideology

Category: Elections (Page 15 of 18)

These are posts on elections from the blog Base and Superstructure. Topics include international elections, American elections, and local Iowa elections. There’s a particular focus on describing and explaining leftist electoral results.

Should Sanders or Warren Drop Out?

The press covers Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren as if they were the same. Or at least close enough to be part of the same ‘lane‘ or ‘wing‘ of the Democratic Party. This assumption forms the background to discussion of the issue of whether one or the other should drop out of the race. The idea seems to be that both of them want to move the US much further to the left. Maybe there are superficial differences. And maybe, as Jacobin writers argue, there are differences of political method and approach. But there’s an underlying closeness.

For the record, I think this assumption is false. I think the differences between the two candidates are rather large. But let’s roll with it for a bit. For purposes of this post, I’ll accept that Sanders and Warren are very similar. Where does that take us?

I think for a lot of people in the broader ‘progressive’ arena, it means they need to unite to prevent a more conservative candidate like Biden, Buttigieg, or Harris from winning the nomination. Typically Biden. Maybe one of them should drop out to help make this happen. Typically Sanders.

What should we make of this? Should Sanders drop out? Should Warren? Would it help take down Biden, the worst candidate?

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Which Democratic Candidate is the Worst?

It’s the summer, and fewer people read blogs over the summer. It’s true, and that means my traffic is down a bit. Fine. It happens. I promise I won’t pander or write fluff, but maybe things will get a bit more casual between now and August.

Truth be told, I’ve been thinking about which Democratic candidate is the worst. For awhile, it seemed to me it’s obviously Joe Biden. But let’s try to be more systematic about this.

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How to Evaluate the Presidential Candidates

20 or so Democrats are headed to the debates. Is it more? Maybe, but I’m not counting. I’m sure we’re all plenty confused. How should we evaluate all these presidential candidates? In some sense, you can evaluate the presidential candidates however you want. I’m not your boss. But here are the key questions I ask when I’m evaluating presidential candidates.

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Julián Castro: The Forgotten Progressive?

Julian Castro

Source: Lorie Shaull (https://www.flickr.com/photos/number7cloud/32568282327)

Julián Castro’s campaign isn’t getting a lot of attention. Admittedly, I’d have probably forgotten about him as well, if not for the fact that I know people caucusing for him in Iowa or thinking about doing so. He’s polling very badly.

But Castro’s worth a look. He seems to be running the leftmost campaign other than Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. And, on closer inspection, I think that assessment holds up well enough. I’ve written a couple of posts on Sanders and one on Warren. Castro merits one, too.

Here’s what’s going on with his campaign, as I see it.

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Why Are Biden and Sanders in the Lead?

Biden and Sanders

Image Source: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images (https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/2/12/18221752/2020-democrats-biden-bernie-sanders-beto-poll)

Quite a few people seem surprised by Joe Biden’s lead in the polls. Some of this is because their friend circles aren’t representative of the Democratic Party electorate. But some of it’s deeper than that. Democrats say in generic polls that they’d prefer women to men, non-white candidates to white candidates, and younger candidates to older candidates. Given the fact that Democrats are more or less evenly divided between moderates and liberals, we could form some hypotheses about who ought to be leading right now.

The best hypothesis would be Kamala Harris. She’s a black women who’s probably neither too liberal nor too moderate for the Democratic electorate. She’s youngish and serves in a political office that’s a common launching pad for presidential campaigns. And we’d expect candidates like Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Amy Klobuchar to be doing OK. We might even think candidates like Julián Castro could take off.

To put it lightly, that’s not what we’re seeing. The two leading candidates, as of May 2019, are Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. Two white guys older than any president-elect in the history of the US. Biden is arguably too conservative for the Democratic electorate, and Sanders is well to the left of the electorate. Even moving beyond Biden and Sanders, we have Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren as four of the top five. Warren isn’t as far left as Sanders, but she’s still well to the left of most Democrats. And Buttigieg is a white guy.

What’s going on here?

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