After the 2016 election, I wrote a post on the status of white women in Trump’s coalition. Trump landed a surprise win over Hillary Clinton, and many people singled out white women as the key driver. In that previous post, I looked at the evidence and concluded that this is false. White women were not the key driver of Trump’s win.
White women have been moving toward the GOP for decades. They even moved slightly away from the GOP in 2016. And so, white women were not the decisive factor in Trump’s victory. It was white men who led Trump to victory. Insofar as, e.g., racial justice movements, singled out white women, it was likely because white women made a more attractive target than white men for moral appeals. Not because white women were key to Trump’s base.
With that as our starting point, let’s return to the issue of white women and Trump. How did 2020 go? Did white women vote for Trump again? Did movement in the votes of white women propel Biden to victory?
