Thoughts on production, alienation, and ideology

Category: Elections (Page 8 of 17)

These are posts on elections from the blog Base and Superstructure. Topics include international elections, American elections, and local Iowa elections. There’s a particular focus on describing and explaining leftist electoral results.

2020 Election Reaction: Trump Blew It

Polls showed Joe Biden in the lead over Donald Trump from start to finish. And then he won bigly. In fact, they showed just about anyone the Democrats might nominate defeating Trump. Therefore, we might conclude that no surprises occurred. Everyone expected Biden to beat Trump, and he did*. A tidy election.

As it turns out, not exactly. For one, that’s not quite a valid argument. Perhaps more relevant to readers’ purposes, its conclusion is also false. But we’re not here to nitpick at logic. The point is that plenty of people expected Trump to win. Mostly liberals and left-leaners concerned about a second Trump term and prone to fret about electoral fraud. But the sentiment took in many analysts and pundits, too.

So why did that happen? And why did Biden win, anyway?

The short answer: Trump blew it. Bigly.

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Progressives After a Biden Win

Liberals and progressives rejoiced as Barack Obama won in 2008. They preferred Obama from the start of the primaries, and he trounced John McCain in the general election. Finally, they’d get all the things they wanted: universal health insurance, card-check for unions, an end to wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the closing of detention facilities in Guantanamo Bay, a full review of NAFTA and switch to fair trade policies, and an indexing of the minimum wage to inflation.

Oops. Obama, of course, got none of these things done. Some of them he even could’ve done on his own without Congress. In turn, liberals and progressives offered excuse after excuse for Obama’s shift to the right. And then they campaigned for Obama again as they declared 2012 to be the ‘most important election of our lifetimes.’

Now the same liberals and progressives say they’ll hold Joe Biden accountable if he wins. They think they can push Biden to adopt policies well to Obama’s left. Will they?

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Two Ways to Beat Trump

Joe Biden’s supporters point to his winning strategy: attracting older voters and moderates to the Democratic Party while trying to minimize losses among younger voters who often don’t vote anyway. Biden mostly ignores higher-income progressives, who don’t have anywhere else to turn and will therefore stay in line and vote a straight Democratic ticket.

And it’s working rather nicely for Biden. He’s way ahead in the polls and will likely defeat Trump handily. But I think a closer look at the evidence shows two ways to beat Trump. Biden took one path.

I’m more interested in the other.

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Who Wants To Defund the Police?

defund the police

I want to defund the police. So do many friends, especially friends in Iowa City. The idea even made it onto our political agenda this summer. If only briefly. But Iowa City doesn’t represent the nation. Do other places have people who want to defund the police?

It turns out Iowa City politics are pretty misleading. And it’s all symptomatic of how we leftists read the public mood. Leftists don’t really know who’s on their team, and this ultimately amounts to one of the biggest problems with leftist electoralism. Why do leftists do this? They confuse their own friends and social circles for the public at-large. This comes out especially well on issues like trying to defund the police.

We know the liberal bubble is a thing. But it’s not just liberals. There are leftist bubbles, too. And these bubbles harm our efforts at building movements.

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