Source: Andrew Malone (https://www.flickr.com/people/andrewmalone/)
When I started this blog, I said I might write about baseball. It’s even in the tagline: Wherein an Iowan writes about leftist politics, philosophy, and maybe baseball. The World Series is over, and late October is a great time for baseball. So, let’s talk about baseball. How about Curt Schilling?
Well, what about Curt Schilling?
Schilling played for the Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Boston Red Sox. He retired after the 2007 season at age 40. And since then, there’s been a raging debate in baseball circles over whether Schilling should be inducted into the Hall of Fame.
Schilling’s Resume
What do the stats say? Let’s take a look at Schilling’s resume.
– 216 wins
– 3.46 ERA (127 ERA+)
– 83 Complete Games and 20 Shutouts
– 3,116 strikeouts
– 6 All-Star Games
– 4 Top 5 Cy Young rankings (highest ranking: 2, achieved 3 times)
– 81 career WAR
How does that compare to the average Hall of Famer? Well, here are the averages.
– 251 wins
– 2.99 ERA
– 255 Complete Games and 40 Shutouts
– 2,144 strikeouts
– 70 career WAR
How Does Schilling Stack Up?
A couple of points. First, on the numbers, Schilling is below average in wins, ERA, complete games, shutouts, Cy Young awards, and probably All-Star Game appearances. He’s above average in strikeouts and WAR.
But, second, some of these averages are misleading. Schilling’s ERA, complete games, and shutout totals are solid for the era he played in. The averages include players from 1890-1960, when starting pitchers often threw the entire game. It’s much more rare now.
There have been 11 pitchers inducted to the Hall since 2000. Among those 12 (11 plus Curt Schilling), Schilling ranks 6th in complete games, 6th in shutouts, 7th in wins and 9th in ERA. Schilling is 5th in WAR and strikeouts in this group, which is very impressive.
So, he wouldn’t be the best among Hall of Famers, but not bottom of the barrel, either. His Hall case is probably better than, for example, Bruce Sutter‘s or Goose Gossage‘s, both of whom are in the Hall (and, for what it’s worth, probably shouldn’t be).
Two Ways of Getting Into the Hall of Fame
At the risk of oversimplification, there are basically two ways a pitcher gets into the Hall of Fame. Two lanes, if you like.
Lane 1: He’s the best pitcher in baseball, or very close to the best, at the height of his career (say, for about 5 seasons).
Lane 2: He was a very good pitcher for a long time, and put up the cumulative career stats of an average Hall of Famer. Typically, this means something like: 250-300 wins (or 400+ saves for a relief pitcher), an ERA+ of 120 or above, a WAR above 70, and so on. Winning a Cy Young award is also extremely helpful, as most pitchers in this category have won the award at least once.
The trouble for Curt Schilling is that he doesn’t really fit into either lane.
Schilling was never the best pitcher in baseball. In fact, he was something of a late bloomer. He only became a very good pitcher at age 30 in 1997. He was an elite pitcher for three seasons: 2001, 2002, and 2004. However, in two of those seasons (2001 and 2002), he wasn’t even the best pitcher on his own team. That title belongs to Randy Johnson, who, by the way, is in the Hall of Fame (and deservedly so). And so, Lane 1 is clearly out.
Lane 2 is more forgiving, but Schilling falls a bit short here, too. Schilling’s ERA and WAR are Hall worthy. But he falls short on wins. And he hasn’t won the Cy Young award, which would mitigate his lack of wins. If you’re going to get into the Hall via the stats accumulation route, you probably need to accumulate more stats than Schilling. Had he won 30 or 40 more games in his 20s, I think he’d be in.
Postseason Play
The other element of Schilling’s case is his postseason performance. He pitched very well in the postseason, and helped three teams (one in Arizona and two in Boston) win the World Series.
And don’t forget the bloody sock.
That’s a plus, and adds significantly to his case. I don’t think postseason performance is the kind of thing that should get a person into the Hall. Particularly since whether you play for a good or bad team is more a matter of luck than skill. But it does help a borderline case. And, as I think I’ve shown, Schilling’s case is borderline.
Steroids?
Steroids are the other side of the coin here. Schilling played through the heart of the Steroid Era. As a player, he was mediocre before age 30. And then he had some very good seasons between age 30 and 33. This is all fairly typical. Players typically peak somewhere between the mid-20s and early-30s. And then they decline.
Schilling didn’t hit the mid-30s decline. In fact, he got better after 33. His best seasons were 2001, 2002, and 2004, when he was 34, 35, and 37 years old, respectively. Many people in baseball believe, not without good reason, that a spike in numbers after the early-30s is the hallmark of the steroid user. It’s what we see with known steroid users like Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Rafael Palmeiro. And also with suspected steroid users like Brady Anderson or David Ortiz.
It’s what we see with Curt Schilling.
That said, there’s no evidence Schilling used steroids. He once claimed some of his Arizona Diamondbacks teammates did. He also claimed that someone in the Boston Red Sox organization encouraged him to use steroids, but that he declined.
But, really, that’s all we have. His career progression is unusual and mildly suspicious, but I’m not inclined to hold that against him without stronger evidence.
Schilling’s Big, Loud, Obnoxious Mouth
If you’re not a baseball fan and you’ve heard of Schilling, you’re probably wondering why I’m dancing around this one.
Curt Schilling is an asshole.
It’s not just that he’s an asshole. He actively courts controversy and spouts off with racist nonsense. For a quick list of things he’s done, we’ve got:
– Launching a four hour Twitter debate in defense of creationism.
– Tweeting a comparison between Muslims and Nazis.
– Sharing a transphobic (note: this is a direct link to the offensive meme, which may be upsetting to some readers) meme on Facebook.
Time magazine once tried to put together a list. Schilling also likes making weird, rambly Facebook posts. And weird, rambly blog posts.
And so, Schilling is a jackass and many groups don’t want to associate with him. ESPN fired him. The Red Sox didn’t invite him to the 2004 World Series team reunion in 2018. And so on.
But is it Just Politics?
Like pretty much every disingenuous turd, Schilling claims he’s oppressed for his political views.
Schilling claims that his conservative beliefs are what is keeping him out of the Hall of Fame. Others, especially conservative sources, encourage this behavior.
Nonsense. There are plenty of conservative Republicans in the Hall of Fame. Schilling’s Hall case is borderline, as you can see above. If Schilling’s “political” behavior is a factor, it’s as a tie-breaker. And it’s not the politics itself. It’s the racist, transphobic rants. Nobody would give a shit if Schilling were just writing articles defending conservative policy and not deliberately offending people.
Conclusion
Like many baseball players, Curt Schilling sits on a border between inclusion and non-inclusion in the Hall of Fame. Give him a Cy Young award and 20-30 more wins, and he’s in. Take 20 wins away and he’s out.
With borderline cases, things like postseason performance, steroids, and, yes, racist social media rants are all things that matter a bit more.
Were I a Hall voter, I’d vote “no” on Schilling. As far as Lane 2 candidates go, I can build a much better case for Mike Mussina.
