Welcome to another edition of our election predictions! People get riled up about most elections, but Trump especially worked people up in 2020.
Will Trump win? What will happen in Iowa? What’s going to happen after the election? Let’s investigate.
National Election Predictions
The short answer is that I think the 538 forecast is more or less on target. I expect Democrats to easily win the House and probably gain about 5-10 seats. The Senate is more complicated, but Democrats should win at least 49 seats and probably at least 50. Ultimately, I think they’ll probably pull out a surprise somewhere and end up with about 52-53.
Here’s the prediction. Democrats will win 240 House seats. And I’ll give it a plausibility range of 230-260. Democrats will win 52 Senate seats. And I’ll give that a plausibility range of 50-55.
Finally, the big one. No ambiguity here. Biden will win, and he’s likely to win pretty big. The question is how ‘bigly’ he’ll win and when we’ll know. I think the election will be called by the TV networks either the night of the election or the morning after.
And here’s my electoral vote map from 270towin. Readers should try out 538’s interactive map. But the short version is that I expect Biden to win pretty bigly. The states I’m least certain about are Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas. But I’ve called Georgia and Florida for Biden and Iowa, Ohio, and Texas for Trump.
Iowa Election Predictions
Alas, there’s a bit less drama in Iowa this cycle. Unless something unexpected happens, the Democrats will win the first three Congressional districts and the Republicans will win the fourth. There was talk most of the year of these four as swing districts, but I think the picture sorted itself out a bit. And so, my predicted winners: Abby Finkenauer, Rita Hart, Cindy Axne, and Randy Feenstra.
There’s also a number of competitive seats in the State House of Representatives and Senate. I’d recommend checking out Bleeding Heartland and Iowa Starting Line for better coverage of these non-federal races.
Impact of the 2020 Election
Finally, let’s say a word about impact. Elections have both less impact than most hardcore partisans imagine and more impact than scoffers and non-participants imagine. I’ve covered Trump and Trumpism extensively – both on this blog and in the form of an ebook. A second Trump term would have lots of negative impact, though that impact might not look much like liberal Democrats think it would look.
Yes, presidents – even ones from opposing parties or apparently opposing ideologies – carry far more similarities than people think. But COVID-19 stands out as one area where Trump and Biden would starkly differ. It’s difficult to over-emphasize how terribly Trump handled COVID-19 and continues handling COVID-19. By merely carrying out his job duties in a minimally competent way, Biden could save tens of thousands of lives.
Biden wisely emphasized this fact during his campaign.
Past Predictions
For your next read, why not check out my 2018 predictions?
