We have two at-large city council seats on the ballot in Iowa City in November 2023. For anyone who doesn’t know this, all the candidates go on the same ballot and the top 2 candidates win. Voters pick 2 from the total list of names.
Let’s talk about how it’s going to go down.
The ‘Left’ Seats
Laura Bergus and Andrew Dunn currently hold the two at-large seats on the ballot. In Iowa City politics, they represent the ‘left.’
I use ‘left’ in quotes because, first, those politics don’t line up well with what we find at the national or state level. Municipal politics raise different sets of issues and see different alliances form. But second, and more important for this blog, neither are part of an anti-capitalist left. All 7 current councilors are Democrats in the liberal or progressive blocs of the Democratic Party. They differ only in the specifics.
Bergus, in particular, identifies as an ‘abolitionist’ and led a (failed) insurgency against police funding back in April. That seems rather left-ish. At the same time, she’s quite pro-capital in her politics, differing on occasion only in her emphasis on South District capital over downtown capital.
Among current councilors, only Dunn shows any real wavering in his pro-capital stance, and this rarely goes beyond a few gestures. Shawn Harmsen and Pauline Taylor are probably the most pro-union council members, though they typically link with more conservative union demands and emphases.
So, there you have it. The ‘left’ seats are on the ballot, but in a very Iowa City sense. There are real differences between the candidates, but everyone shares a basic liberal political vision.
The Anarcho-Liberal and the Architect
Mandi Remington, a local non-profit director, then entered the race. This pushed Dunn out of the at-large race and into a separate election for District C.
Like Bergus, Remington identifies as an abolitionist. Unlike Bergus, Remington’s abolitionism comes as a part of a broader ‘anarcho-liberal‘ politics. That is to say, she mostly wants to take the state out of politics, preferring to turn toward Iowa City’s large number of NGOs and non-profits to solve problems rather than building up the capacity of local government.
Remington sports a history of activism that mostly involves mutual aid type work and non-profit coalition building. She identifies as a ‘leftist,’ though I don’t find much that’s leftist about heavy promotion of non-profits. While non-profits do great work, they lack both the political base and the capacity to address issues at the scale of a city. They’re not central to a working class politics.
The final candidate (or so it seemed at the time) was Josh Moe – local architect, wealthy guy, and politician in the model of current Mayor Bruce Teague. He positions himself as a liberal with standard Democratic politics, combining social liberalism, a mainstream LGBTQ identity, and pro-downtown capital stances.
A Clear Picture Emerges
I’ll note that I’m just drawing some contrasts between the various candidates. As I said earlier, they’re really quite similar to one another. Once again, all of them fit into liberal to progressive Democratic politics. Bergus and Remington add a bit of flavor with their abolitionism, though it’s not much clear what they mean by ‘abolitionism.’ Dunn is a bit less pro-capital than the others, and so on.
But we’re talking about differences of degree, not kind. None are leftist, anti-capital candidates. There are no socialists in the race.
And so, all was well. No one set out to create deep, fundamental change.
From this early lineup, it was clear that Bergus would win the most votes and thus the first of two seats. Her long history in Iowa City helps. She’s a smart and skilled politician who appeals to almost everyone and attracts few real enemies (other than perhaps a few police officers and, at times, city staff). She has excellent speaking skills, and her insightful questions and comments at meetings appeal to technocrats. Progressives and the activist base like her for her assent to ‘abolition,’ but her pro-capital stances appeal to centers of power.
It’s hard to beat that package in Iowa City, and neither Remington nor Moe could top her. Capital would probably prefer Moe to Remington. But it’s got no major beef with either of them.
Mazahir Salih Throws a Haymaker
And then early this month, shortly before the ballot deadline, Mazahir Salih entered the race. Salih currently runs an immigrant non-profit, twice directed the Center for Worker Justice of Eastern Iowa, and served for one term on the council.
During her last term, Salih mostly set up shop on the ‘left’ of city politics. But not without complications, as I wrote earlier. She drew her politics from a coalition of immigrants and Warren style progressives. And while this coalition is a winning one in Iowa City politics, it didn’t position Salih to succeed as a councilor. Mostly she got out voted by her colleagues and ran afoul of city staff.
So, why run again?
For one, I suspect she entered the race to throw haymakers at Remington and Moe, neither of whom fit well with her politics. Remington’s abolitionism and anarcho-liberalism run counter to Salih’s project of building outsider power in politics. And Moe’s pro-downtown capital stances likely don’t sit well with her, either.
With Bergus in the race as a fellow candidate, Salih could defeat them both.
Neat trick, right?
Finally, I think Salih is also moving a bit to the political right with a new coalition. No longer just Warrenistas and immigrants, these days she seems to ground her politics in more centrist, and often petty bourgeois, elements within Iowa City’s black community. I doubt Salih will ever move as far to the right as Royceann Porter or Rockne Cole, former ‘leftists’ (those quotes again) turned centrist county supervisor and right-wing podcaster, respectively. But I also doubt she’s going to be taking up the ‘left’ of the council in her new term, either.
Bergus Answers with a Haymaker
So, where does that leave us? Bergus was going to easily win the first of two seats in a three person race. But Salih’s entry changed that. Does that mean an easy win for Salih and Bergus, with Remington and Moe left on the outside?
Well, it would’ve meant that, had the candidates stayed put. But, much like Dunn, Bergus decided to exit the at-large race and run for a district seat. District A, in her case, where she’ll be taking on fellow councilor Pauline Taylor.
Of course, I don’t know exactly who threw the haymaker first. Maybe Bergus first decided to take on Taylor, and then Salih stepped in to battle Moe and Remington. I think it’s more likely that Salih moved first, and then Bergus second.
Either way, Bergus is no longer our concern here, because she’s no longer in the at-large race. She clearly doesn’t care for Taylor’s politics. And she’d prefer to give up an easy win to roll the dice and try to get a council closer to her ideas.
Good for her.
Who Wins?
This leaves us with a three person race: Moe, Remington, and Salih. Who wins?
First, and obviously, Salih does. Her political base covers nearly the entire city, and neither of the other two candidates can say anything like that. Few people in Iowa City can. Maybe Mayor Teague, but that’s about it. Neither Moe nor Remington is a Mayor Teague.
It’s true that I think Salih’s politics have moved to the right. But while this might alienate some of her supporters one day, that day hasn’t come yet. And it won’t come before November 2023.
Remington built much of her early campaign on endorsing Bergus and then riding Bergus’s popularity to the second seat. That could still work, but it would’ve worked more effectively with Bergus on the same ballot line. Salih put a stop to that. Otherwise, Remington’s base consists of the non-profit world (fairly small), the activist scene (much smaller), and some progressives (but how many of them?).
Moe’s coalition, however, doesn’t look much more impressive. He’ll probably win any conservative vote (tiny) and very pro-downtown capital, pro-growth votes (still small, but less so). He could make inroads with certain trade union elements, and he’ll likely have at least the tacit support of Mayor Teague. These will help a lot more, but will they be enough to win?
So, who wins the second seat? It could go either way. My guess is that Moe wins it in a very close election. But I’m not putting money on it.
