Source: Lorie Shaull (https://www.flickr.com/photos/number7cloud/32568282327)
Julián Castro’s campaign isn’t getting a lot of attention. Admittedly, I’d have probably forgotten about him as well, if not for the fact that I know people caucusing for him in Iowa or thinking about doing so. He’s polling very badly.
But Castro’s worth a look. He seems to be running the leftmost campaign other than Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. And, on closer inspection, I think that assessment holds up well enough. I’ve written a couple of posts on Sanders and one on Warren. Castro merits one, too.
Here’s what’s going on with his campaign, as I see it.
Which Office is Castro Seeking?
First, a quick note. People running for president aren’t always running for president. Sometimes they’re building attention and momentum for a lower office, like the vice presidency or a cabinet position. Sometimes for a gubernatorial or senatorial run.
When I started evaluating the presidential candidates, I noted two who are probably seeking a lower office. Julián Castro is one of them (and, for the record, Pete Buttigieg is the other). So, I think all of this comes with the note that he’s likely seeking the vice presidency or a cabinet post. Or he’s planning to run for the Senate in 2020 or Governor in 2022.
Castro’s Policies
Castro hasn’t really built out the kind of policy detail you get from Sanders or Warren, but he’s said enough that we have plenty to work with.
Immigration
Immigration reform is clearly the star of his platform. It’s the first issue you see on his website, and it’s the key part of his narrative to audiences.
Castro’s plan starts with the standard Democratic call for greater protection against deportation via DACA and other temporary statuses, though Castro wants to improve this system to a greater degree than others do. He also wants to roll back Trump-era policies like the travel ban and limits on refugees, as do other candidates.
But the centerpiece of Castro’s immigration plan is that he wants to largely decriminalize the immigration system. He wants to overturn laws making ‘illegal entry‘ a crime. This is, as Vox put it, “the policy equivalent of the ‘no human is illegal’ slogan.” He also wants to restructure the various federal agencies involved in immigration. This includes moving some enforcement and removal operations out of Homeland Security, taking routine immigration enforcement away from Customs, and making immigration courts independent from political machinations, among other ideas.
The central theme here is that he wants to take immigration agencies out of the criminal justice business and put them in the labor and settlement business. The slogan ‘Abolish ICE‘ is popular on the left. Castro’s plan falls short of that, but it does gel well with a lot of the spirit behind it. It’s a decent starting point, and Castro is well ahead of the other candidates on these issues.
A Marshall Plan for Central America
Castro endorsed the concept of a ‘Marshall Plan for Central America.’ It’s not entirely clear what this means, though the basic idea is clear enough. Castro wants to send US developmental aid to Central America, and he wants to do this instead of building walls. Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has endorsed the idea, and so has at least one member of Congress. The idea also has some traction in foreign policy circles. And I think the basic concept has merit.
Other Policies
Castro’s platform on other issues is broadly in line with the Sandersista Trinity. He has endorsed Medicare for All, a $15 minimum wage, and free college. He hasn’t been a policy leader on any of these issues, but they’re a part of his platform.
One issue where Castro has been more of a leader is the issue of reparations for slavery and racism. He doesn’t appear to have a plan for what reparations would look like, but he supports creating a task force to study it. And he’s not shy about emphasizing his support for the task force. I think he’d do so if he were elected president. His advocacy on the issue looks key to his approach to presidential politics and his efforts at building a coalition of voters. The way I’d put it is that a reparations task force is more likely under President Castro than under most of his rivals.
His History in Office
This is Castro’s glaring weakness, and it’s one he’s trying to overcome. Until a year or two ago, Castro was politically well to the right of Sanders and even Warren. At the more superficial level, he endorsed Hillary Clinton very early when a clearly better candidate was still running for the nomination. But a closer look at his history shows this endorsement to be pretty in line with his pre-2017 politics. There’s not much prior to 2017 to suggest Castro is anything other than a middle of the road partisan Democrat.
Most recently, Castro was Secretary of Housing and Urban Development under President Obama. Progressive groups, including Latinx groups, weren’t impressed with his service. The main line of criticism is that he was too close to private equity groups, selling mortgages to Wall Street without proper oversight.
Before that, he was a city council member and later mayor of San Antonio. His general record there is one of promoting business development based on public-private partnerships and education funding. The best statement of his record in San Antonio is that it’s pro-business, pro-trade, and pro-education. In terms of concrete accomplishments, he started SA2020, founded a college guidance program for local students, and expanded pre-K education programs.
If we’re evaluating Castro’s record from the left, I think it compares unfavorably to Sanders’s time as mayor of Burlington. Sanders took a much more hard-nosed attitude toward exploitative development, established cooperative housing and tenants organizations, and promoted much more democratic local development. Castro’s post-2017 platform and emphasis is much improved, though I think skepticism is warranted.
The Castro Base
It’s relatively clear who makes up the Sanders base and the Warren base. The Castro base is much more difficult to judge, because he’s polling well under 5%. There just aren’t enough Castro supporters to provide any reliable, detailed analysis on who they are. For what it’s worth, there’s some speculation that Castro’s Latinx supporters are under sampled by pollsters. The thought here is that Castro’s support might be much higher. I doubt this is true, but it’s a possibility worth looking into.
Consequently, whatever I might say about Castro’s base is highly speculative. What little evidence we have indicates Castro’s supporters are mostly non-white. It’s also likely they’re mostly Latinx and (even more speculatively, and pretty much based on anecdotes) young.
In general, white Democrats are more liberal than non-white Democrats. But as a philosopher, it’s my duty to warn you against the division fallacy. Castro’s base is only a small subset of non-white Democrats, and I suspect they’re a subset that leans pretty heavily to the liberal-and-maybe-left side of things. Possibly even as far left as Sanders supporters. But this is even more speculative. What’s less speculative is that non-white moderate and conservative Democrats lean heavily toward Biden and Harris, not Castro.
As I’ve said before, building a base of independents, non-voters, and working-class people of color is pretty key to getting things done. Democrats aren’t going to be able to ride their usual base to major structural change. Castro’s got a long way to go before he does this, but his current base provides him with a start. He’s probably in a better position in that regard than Elizabeth Warren, whose supporters are mostly wealthy white progressives. Latinx activists have done a much better job pushing Democrats than wealthy white progressives. And that’s not really a close contest.
Castro’s Governing Philosophy
Unlike Sanders and Warren, I don’t think Castro follows a clear, obvious animating vision. That’s fine, and he shares this in common with most of the candidates. But it makes this section tough to write.
Like Warren, I don’t believe he follows the Sanders-style social democratic vision. He’s endorsed social democratic programs, but they’re not at the forefront of his campaign. And like Sanders, I don’t think he’s obviously committed to the whole of American progressivism. He certainly prioritizes lower and middle income families with many of his ideas. But he’s less into the sort of technical, policy-centered style of the progressive tradition in the way that’s so central to the Warren campaign.
When he talks about reparations, especially when he rhetorically poses it against Medicare for All and free college, he shows a clear identitarian streak. He shares this streak with Cory Booker, but he never reaches Booker’s level of cynicism. In the end, I don’t think Castro is an identitarian. His immigration policy, where I’d expect that kind of view to reveal itself, is clearly non-identitarian in nature. He’s also pro-business, but not too pro-business, in the way that Biden, Buttigieg, and O’Rourke are too pro-business.
This is a good point to apologize, because I’ve defined Castro’s political vision mostly via negation. So, to return to the scorecard I used for Sanders and Warren, I think Castro is mostly a progressive, a bit pro-business, a bit of an identitarian, and neither a social democrat nor a democratic socialist. That’s the best read I have on him.
Comments and suggestions are very much welcome.
The Castro Presidency
So, what would Castro do as the president? What are the things he’d focus on?
I think the clear answer here is that he’d focus on reforming the immigration system. And he’d focus on various areas of business development, such as education funding. He can accomplish some of these things with executive action. But he’d need legislation for most of it.
While he has endorsed things like Medicare for All, a $15 minimum wage, et al., I don’t think these are things he’d put much political capital into. They don’t seem central to his campaign in the way immigration reform is central. And from his past service in public office, Castro has a (generally well earned) reputation for not being a strong fighter for his views. I think he’ll fight for immigration reform, but that might be all.
“So, Should I Vote For Castro?”
I’m not in the business of telling you who to vote for. If you want to vote for Castro, do it. I think he’s an acceptable choice. And I think he’d be a (small) step in the right direction for the Democratic Party.
For various reasons, I think Sanders and Warren are better candidates. And so, I’m not considering caucusing for Castro in Iowa. But there are reasons for voting for him. One, voting for him sends a message that decriminalization of the immigration system is important. And two, voting for him increases the likelihood he’ll pick up enough momentum to be an effective fighter for immigration reform. Castro stands out enough on immigration that there’s probably a better case for voting Castro than voting Warren. This is to say that even though I think Warren’s a slightly better candidate than Castro, Sanders is a better candidate than Warren across the board. Castro, on the other hand, stands out as better than everyone else on immigration.
If immigration is your top issue, and you want to send a message with your vote that it should be the top priority in the next few years, Castro’s the best choice. Otherwise, I think he’d make a compelling name on the list of potential VP selections for Sanders or Warren.
