Each presidential candidate is traveling to Iowa, and each presidential candidate has a problem or two. Today I’ll be their consultant.
I’ve got a few quibbles with 538’s taxonomy, but it’s a good starting point. Arguably there are five corners to the Democratic primary electorate. 538 draws a distinction between ‘party loyalists’ and ‘the left,’ whereas the better distinction is probably between ‘moderate’ Democrats and ‘progressive’ Democrats, but whatever. It’s a start.
I’ll lay out one key thing each candidate needs to do to get in a position to win the nomination.
One Tip for Each Serious Candidate
I’m going to list the “serious” candidates in alphabetical order. I mean, I have some thoughts on who’s more and less likely to win, but I’ll save much of that for later.
Cory Booker
Tip: Come up with a campaign message.
So, Booker seems like a candidate who could win a lot of votes. He also seems genuinely likeable. Remember that time he saved a woman from a house fire? Or that time he rescued a dog from the cold? Also, he’s a vegan, but he’s not a jerk about it.
But does anyone know why he’s running? Does Cory Booker know why Cory Booker is running? One of the key problems with Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign was that she had no central message. So far, Booker has the same problem. One day he’s for school privatization, and the next day he’s against it. One day he’s for Medicare for All, and the next day he’s against it. He’s running in every lane, and therefore no lanes. Booker has to figure this stuff out, and he has to do it soon.
Kirsten Gillibrand
Tip: Find a base.
The early polls are out, and practically no one supports Gillibrand. She doesn’t even get her own column in the data. She’s just lumped in with “Other.”
That’s no good. But it’s still early, so it’s not necessarily a problem. Yet. The trouble is that it’s not clear she has a natural base of support. She served as a center-right member of the House, and now she’s running in the ‘progressive lane’ after veering hard left as a Senator. But why would progressive Democrats prefer Gillibrand over Harris, Sanders, and Warren?
Also, many Democrats are angry with Gillibrand over Al Franken‘s resignation. I have no beef with Gillibrand on that, but it’s an issue she’ll have to overcome.
Kamala Harris
Tip: Unite the black, non-black POC, and progressive sectors of the Democratic Party.
I won’t say a lot about Harris. I think she’s the early frontrunner, and so my message here is one of consolidation. The gold standard for mainstream Democrats is to reestablish the Obama coalition. Harris is probably best positioned to do that.
And so, that’s Harris’s basic task. She’s doing fine in early Iowa polling, especially if Biden doesn’t run. Similar story in South Carolina. The real question mark is whether Harris has anywhere near Obama’s skill set as a campaigner. We’ll see. If she does, I think the nomination is hers to lose.
Amy Klobuchar
Tip: Convince Joe Biden not to run.
Klobuchar faced roughly the same situation as Gillibrand: she could’ve gone with either the ‘moderate lane’ or the ‘progressive lane.’ Unlike Gillibrand, Klobuchar chose the moderate lane. She’s come out explicitly against Medicare for All and free college, which are two key components of the Sandersista Trinity that defines the ‘progressive lane.’
I think what happened here is that Klobuchar took a look at the ‘progressive lane’, concluded it was too crowded and she couldn’t defeat Harris, Sanders, and Warren, and so she decided to go all-in on the ‘moderate lane.’ OK, whatever. It might work, but the problem here is that Joe Biden will probably defeat her pretty quickly if he runs. She’s got to hope Uncle Joe sits this one out.
Bernie Sanders
Tip: Expand your base.
Bernie Sanders has a base. He’s doing pretty well in the polls I cited above, and the Dank Memes are back. The Bern blew through every known small-donor fundraising record on his first day.
So far, so good. But to win, Sanders needs to expand beyond his 2016 base of new voters, young voters, and independents. While he won the votes of young black and non-black POC voters, he got annihilated among older and more conservative non-white voters. He won’t win if that happens again.
Sanders has very good favorability numbers. In fact, with the possible exception of Joe Biden, he’s the most popular politician in the country. And despite constant criticism of his lack of ability to win over non-white voters, he’s especially popular with…non-white voters. The question is whether Sanders can translate that popularity into votes. Particularly whether he can convince non-white voters to support him over candidates like Harris and Biden who better align with non-white Democrats ideologically. Maybe he can. Again, we’ll see.
Elizabeth Warren
Tip: Defeat Bernie Sanders.
There’s no way around this: to win the nomination, Warren must defeat Bernie Sanders. Sanders has the rare ability to draw young voters and independents to the polls. And he has name recognition that he can use to build support among different groups of Democrats.
Warren can’t do much of that. She’s too liberal for moderate Democrats, but she’s too much of a Democrat for young voters and independents. Instead, she’s running firmly in the ‘progressive lane,’ and so she has to win most of those votes. Furthermore, she’s running on big ideas and policy. This puts Bernie Sanders directly between her and the nomination.
I think Warren knows this. She focused on Sanders before he even announced his candidacy. She’s trying to out-left him on domestic and foreign policy. She’s also encouraging suggestions that the nominee shouldn’t be a white man (i.e., Bernie Sanders) in a situation where ideological differences are “relatively minor.” I think that so far, she’s giving it her best shot. It remains to be seen whether she can actually defeat the Bern.
Bonus Tips
Joe Biden and Beto O’Rourke
Tip: Shit or get off the pot.
Come on, guys. Knock off the Hamlet routine. You’re either running for president or you’re not. Just pick one.
We’re waiting.
Pete Buttigieg and Julián Castro
Tip: Impress the nominee.
I don’t think these guys are running for president. I think they’re running for vice president. And so, their task is to do a good job on the campaign trail and in the debates. Their goal, as far as I can tell, is to get the nominee to choose them as their running mate.
John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Marianne Williamson, and Andrew Yang
Tip: Drop out of the race.
Seriously, who are these people? Why are they running for president? Not a single candidate here will win the nomination or even come close to winning the nomination. None of them will be the vice presidential candidate. I’ve written about Yang and UBI previously, and Gabbard might set a new record for the most annoying and tiniest fan base. That’s about all I care to say here.
Note: Image source is Wyatt Wellman (https://www.flickr.com/photos/wyattwellman/3893529350)
