About a month ago, I wrote a post arguing only 8 people can still win the Democratic nomination.
Only?! For such a late date, 8 was a lot! By this point in 2016, it was down to (probably) Hillary Clinton or (very unlikely) Bernie Sanders. And the Iowa Caucus traditionally winnows the field even further. Did it do so this time? How about New Hampshire?
The early states provided some mess and some clarity. And so, I’ll ask: who can still win the Democratic nomination?
Previous List (January 2020)
I’ll start with a review of last time. As I said, I thought 8 candidates still had a chance. But there’s a chance and there’s a chance. Some of them I gave a chance somewhere around ‘barely not-zero’ – see, for example, Andrew Yang – while others I gave a chance of something like ‘decent’ or even ‘pretty good’ – see Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden, respectively. Here’s how I ranked those candidates, according to their chances of winning:
First Tier
1. Joe Biden
2. Bernie Sanders
3. Elizabeth Warren
4. Pete Buttigieg
Second Tier
5. Amy Klobuchar
6. Michael Bloomberg
Third Tier
7. Tom Steyer
8. Andrew Yang
Even these rankings hide the proportions. Greater distance separated, say, Bloomberg from Steyer than seperated Buttigieg from Klobuchar. Steyer and Yang were extremely marginal candidates when I wrote the list. I included them only because they had at least something going for them – something that kept hope alive for their campaigns. For Steyer, that was solid polling in Nevada and South Carolina. And for Yang, it was solid fundraising numbers and a rabidly loyal fan base.
Candidates like Michael Bennet and Deval Patrick didn’t even have that. There was little reason pretending they could win.
What’s Changed Since January?
The first – and obvious – thing that’s changed since January is that Iowa and New Hampshire have voted. Some combination of Buttigieg and Sanders won Iowa, and Sanders won New Hampshire cleanly.
For Buttigieg, Iowa was a must win state. He (partially) delivered. But, even if deferred, his problems remain: he doesn’t poll well with black voters, liberals prefer Sanders or Warren, and voters concerned about electability prefer Biden or Bloomberg. What Iowa bought him was time and a chance to deliver in New Hampshire. He didn’t do that, but he did well enough to stick around. And so, I think Buttigieg could still be a factor, but he’s not a frontrunner. However, these contests have helped his case for vice president or cabinet member.
For Sanders, Iowa was a mixed victory. He led the polls – barely – and then he won the popular vote. Buttigieg’s apparent win in delegates took away any positive momentum, but the popular vote victory prevented any negative momentum. His win in New Hampshire put him fully on track, and there’s a good chance he’ll win Nevada, too. In terms of where he stands, he’s probably the frontrunner. But he’s a very weak frontrunner and susceptible to a strong challenge.
For Biden, it’s been one disaster after another. His fourth place finish in Iowa dislodged him from the frontrunner role, and then his fifth place finish in New Hampshire confirmed his slide. His national poll numbers are down, and he’s in big trouble. He needs wins in Nevada and South Carolina.
For Warren, she did well enough in Iowa to not drop out. But she didn’t do well enough to call it an encouraging result. It was a disappointment, but not a disaster. Her New Hampshire result, on the other hand, was a full disaster. In Nevada or South Carolina, she needs to land in the top two. I’m just not seeing how that happens.
The Cuts
And then there’s the cuts. At this point, there’s no reason to have a third tier. If a candidate can’t make it into one of the top two tiers, it’s time to leave them off the list.
The obvious cut would’ve been Yang, but he rendered it a moot point by dropping out on Tuesday night. Yang was marginal even in January, but his chances dropped to zero after the Iowa Caucus. His chances of winning weren’t any better than those of Tulsi Gabbard, Deval Patrick, et al. He’s done.
The more difficult decision – but I think the right one – is Warren. Yes, she finished ahead of Biden in both Iowa and New Hampshire. But, unlike Biden, she doesn’t have much of a path to win the next couple of states. And then she’d enter Super Tuesday with no wins and with Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg in the space she’d like to occupy. I’m not seeing it.
Are her chances literally zero? No, but she’s a decidedly third tier candidate at this point. And, as I’ve said, no third tier this time.
“What about the billionaires?”
I haven’t mentioned Michael Bloomberg and Tom Steyer. Let’s talk about Steyer first. I listed him as third tier last time. Have his chances changed much? Not really. But what’s bad for Biden and Warren might be good for Steyer. He could benefit from their fall.
Steyer polls well in Nevada and South Carolina, as I’ve mentioned. He usually battles Bernie Sanders for second place behind Joe Biden. Given Biden’s troubles – and the fact that Warren doesn’t look poised to benefit from those troubles – Steyer has a bit of an opening. Do I think he’ll take advantage of that opening? Probably not, but it’s there. He’s still in. Barely.
Bloomberg is the most difficult case. On the one hand, he’s spending hundreds of millions of dollars and he’s rising quickly in the polls. National polling now has him tied with Warren for third place, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in second by the end of the month. On the other hand, he has no delegates so far and won’t have any at the end of February. He’s got another few weeks until Super Tuesday. How long can a campaign thrive with no wins? And if Bloomberg has even a minor stumble on Super Tuesday, he’s probably done. He’s in, mostly due to everyone else’s weaknesses.
The Rankings: Who Can Still Win The Democratic Nomination?
I’ll split the candidates into two tiers.
First Tier
1. Bernie Sanders
2. Michael Bloomberg
3. Pete Buttigieg
Why Sanders? First, he won Iowa and New Hampshire, and he looks pretty good headed into Nevada. Second, his fundraising machine is legendary, and his supporters are loyal. He still has lots of people to convince to push past the 25-30% mark in these contests, but he’s on his way to doing that. And third, anyone else I might put in the top spot has more serious flaws than Sanders.
Bloomberg’s money and polling rise place him in second in a weak field, and he probably has the most potential to do well. But he’s also got a lot of potential to fold very, very quickly if things don’t go well for him on Super Tuesday. We’ll see.
And then there’s Pete Buttigieg. Whether to put Buttigieg in the first or second tier was the toughest call here. I think it’s unlikely he’ll win the nomination. At the same time, I can see his path. Here’s what it looks like: Buttigieg pulls a surprise win in Nevada or South Carolina – or both! – and then he forces Biden and/or Bloomberg out of the race. Why? Because they ultimately just don’t want Sanders to win the nomination.
Far fetched? Yeah, maybe. But he’s got a more plausible path than anyone in the next tier. Plus, unlike others, he can claim a win somewhere.
Second Tier
4. Amy Klobuchar
5. Tom Steyer
6. Joe Biden
Klobuchar’s chances are pretty marginal, and Steyer’s and Biden’s are approaching – but not yet at – zero. Why are they still here? Klobuchar keeps beating expectations, and a surprise first or second place finish in Nevada would make her a contender. At the very least, it would move her ahead of Buttigieg. There’s enough hope here for her to merit a second tier ranking.
On Steyer, I don’t have much to add to what I wrote above. Is he marginal? Yes. But there’s enough hope in Nevada and South Carolina that he’s not done yet.
Biden’s getting very marginal at this point, and I suspect he might drop out. Assuming he doesn’t drop out, he polls well in Nevada and great in South Carolina. The prospect of a victory in one or both states means he has some chance at the nomination. He’s still in for now.
I have my doubts any of these three will last through Super Tuesday, but weirder things have happened.
Bonus: No One Wins?
I’ll end with an unlikely scenario we’ll probably hear a lot about in late February and early March: no one wins a majority of delegates, and the Democratic convention has to pick someone.
Is it possible? Yes. In fact, if everyone stays in the race until the end, it’s quite likely. But candidates will probably drop out, endorse other candidates, and so on. Usually the field narrows over time and someone emerges as a winner. And usually it happens very early. Maybe it takes longer than usual in 2020, but it’ll probably happen.
