We’re at the final debate before the primaries begin. At this point, our question is no longer ‘who’s in the race, and what are they saying?’. Rather, it’s ‘who can still win the Democratic nomination?’. The time for candidates to make their case is mostly over, and the time to start voting is near.
The Democrats started with about 25 candidates, and now they’re down to 13. 13! It still seems like too many for January 2020. Even now, I say it’s too early to predict the winner. But it’s not too early to start making some cuts. And so, I’ll start not with the question of who will win the Democratic nomination, but rather the question of who can win it. Among the 13 remaining candidates, which ones have a notably nonzero chance of victory?
The Criteria
Yeah, whatever. How do we know who can win? In a strict sense, we can’t. Sorry, but it’s not that easy. I’ll sketch out criteria, though, to make it easier. Here’s what I’ll use.
First, national polling. Which Democrats poll reasonably well across the country with likely primary voters and caucusgoers? By ‘reasonably’, let’s say about 5% or higher. In a race with lots of candidates, 5% counts as a good measure of significant levels of support. Any candidate hitting 5% nationally has at least some chance of winning the Democratic nomination.
Second, early-state polling (i.e., mostly Iowa and New Hampshire, but also Nevada and South Carolina). Even if a candidate doesn’t poll well nationally, they might poll well in one of the first four. A strong performance in, say, Iowa or New Hampshire could revive a weak campaign. Polling 5-7% in these states is a good marker of a potential surprise candidate.
Third, campaign donations. Candidates who don’t poll well could signal support with a large donor base or large donation levels. They could also signal support with donations that increase over time, even if the dollar amounts aren’t large.
Finally, I’ve listed these in order of importance. National polling is the best measure of a candidate’s support and likelihood of winning the nomination. A candidate who performs well overall could perform well anywhere. And donations, while signals of support, aren’t useful unless they translate into votes.
The Cuts
So, who’s cut? I’ll start with the candidates who do well on none of these criteria. That’s the easy part. 538 maps all these features pretty well, and so I’ll use their data as a major source. Here’s a list of candidates who don’t hit 5% nationally, don’t poll well in the early states, and don’t hit large enough numbers of donors to put themselves in the top 5 or 6: Michael Bennet, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Deval Patrick.
None of those candidates will win. They’re cut. Our list of 13 is down to 9. But it gets tougher from here. Four candidates do well on some of the criteria, but not all of them: Michael Bloomberg, Cory Booker, Tom Steyer, and Andrew Yang. Let’s look at each and evaluate them in turn.
Borderline Cases
Bloomberg entered the race very late, but he’s polling reasonably well at the national level. Usually 5th place, and rarely worse than 7th. He doesn’t poll well in early states, but this is a part of a strategy to start on Super Tuesday. Probably a bad strategy. Just ask President Rudy Giuliani, who employed the strategy in 2008. He has no donors to speak of, but he’s putting a ton of his own money in the race. In the event there’s no clear leader or two-way race before Super Tuesday, he could compete. He’s in.
The Booker campaign, on the other hand, shows little sign of life. He has a decent donor base, but he’s polling in the low single-digits both nationally and in the early states. His polling is going down rather than up, and he’s routinely in 8th or worse place. He’s out.
Steyer polls badly at the national level, but decently in the early states. Why? He’s flooding the early states with TV and mail advertisements, and they’re buying him about 5-7% support there. He does decently with donors, and he’s pouring a ton of his own money into his campaign. In short, he looks more like Bloomberg than Booker. He’s in, but marginal.
Yang is the case I find most difficult to evaluate. He doesn’t consistently poll above 5% nationally or in early states. He has a small donor base, but it’s a very enthusiastic one. Yang polls in about 6th or 7th place, which is noticeably better than Booker. And his numbers are trending – if very slowly – in a positive direction. He’s in, but barely. Yang is by far the most marginal candidate who’s in.
A Note on Amy Klobuchar
O.K., I haven’t mentioned Amy Klobuchar at all. What gives? She’s in, and it’s not a tough decision. I once said Klobuchar probably needed for Biden to pass on the race for her to have much of a chance, and that’s still accurate. She’d benefit enormously from a Biden exit. But she’s doing well enough on the criteria to stay in the conversation. She doesn’t poll well at the national level, but she has a solid donor base and she polls well above her national levels in Iowa. With a strong performance in Iowa, she could compete.
So, Who Can Win the Democratic Nomination?
This leaves us with 8 candidates: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Tom Steyer, Elizabeth Warren, and Andrew Yang. Some of these candidates clearly have a better chance than others, but there’s a possible world in which any of them win.
First Tier
Here’s where I think they rank, in terms of likelihood of winning the Democratic nomination:
1. Joe Biden
2. Bernie Sanders
3. Elizabeth Warren
4. Pete Buttigieg
Biden and Sanders still lead. Biden polls in first place nationally, and he remains competitive enough in the early states to support his status as a (historically rather weak) front runner. Sanders polls second nationally and first or second in the early states. He’s way ahead of everyone in terms of donor bases. Warren polls much better than Buttigieg nationally, though Buttigieg polls better in early states. They’re pretty close.
Second Tier
There’s a big drop-off after the top four. Here’s where I see it.
5. Amy Klobuchar
6. Michael Bloomberg
Klobuchar and Bloomberg are close. Based on national polling, I’d give the edge to Bloomberg. But his ‘skip the early states’ strategy is foolish, and Klobuchar passes him on the strength of her polling in Iowa.
Third Tier
Honestly, I don’t think the last two have much chance of winning. But, again, I’m being cautious. Here’s the finish.
7. Tom Steyer
8. Andrew Yang
Could one of them win? I guess. But don’t bet on it. And there you have it: a list of who can win the Democratic nomination. What do you think? Amy mistakes/additions/subtractions/re-orderings?
