In theory, no one can beat the Astros this season. Way back at the beginning of the season, the pundits said the Astros would steamroll the AL West and then the entire American League. Don’t believe the pundits? Prefer numbers and metrics? Well, they said the same thing. Note that to get the preseason predictions from 538, you have to scroll down to the bottom and select it. Experts said basically the same thing at the end of the season.
OK, the Astros already steamrolled the AL West, and now they’re working on the entire AL. Plus, they don’t have to worry about the Dodgers in the World Series, making them perhaps strong favorites. Sure, the Yankees beat the Twins again. But these aren’t my cousin‘s Astros, either. With an excellent rotation, lineup, and defense, the Astros are the most talented team in the postseason.
Let’s think a bit more now about whether the Yankees can do this.
And so, the question. Can the Yankees be a giant-killer? Are they capable of beating MLB’s best starting rotation with a few starter innings and a great bullpen? Can they take down a 107-win team with a roster that had the greatest injury rate in the history of the game?
But does that even make sense? The Yankees? A team with 27 World Series titles (easily the most)? The most Hall of Fame players? A high payroll (note: contrary to popular wisdom, the Yankees actually don’t have baseball’s highest payroll)?
I think it does make sense, at least this season. Whether it’s the role of metrics and analytics, or just old-fashioned good luck, the Yankees are the underdog in the ALCS. And it’s hard to see exactly how they win. They need their starting pitchers to hold up through 3-4 innings each, and they need the flawless bullpen they’ve always brought to the table. On top of this, they’ve got to catch a few breaks from guys like Cole, Greinke, and Verlander.
Consequently, they’ve got their work cut out for them. But they’re doing fine so far.
