Winter’s still here and spring training is barely underway. Let’s face it: most people aren’t paying attention to spring training. Sports writers are getting antsy. Once again, we get the annual complaint that baseball is too boring.
Nonsense. Keep baseball boring.
The Winter Game
The thing is, this happens every winter. The Hall of Fame announcements are in the rear-view mirror, and there’s nothing to cover. It’s cold out there in Iowa. Gotta write those articles. Hey, how about the stigma that baseball is boring?
That’s a good story, guys. Type that shit up, send it to your editor, and take a vacation. It’s a job well done.
The Strike and the Steroids
Baseball had a real problem 25 years ago. The players went on strike!
The impact was pretty bad. Owners laughably tried to use replacement players. One team folded. World Series TV ratings began to decline.
Major League Baseball needed to juice the game somehow. Juice. Baseball. Juice. Hmm.
Many of you know what happened. MLB had officially banned steroids in 1991, though many people knew some players were juicing anyway. Run production ‘mysteriously’ rose in the years after the strike. In 1998 alone, Mark McGwire hit 70 home runs and Sammy Sosa hit 66. Both of those figures broke the all-time record. Not to be outdone, Barry Bonds hit 73 in 2001.
Predictably, it all came crashing down a few years later.
The Pace of Play
Well, we can’t do that again, now can we? Better come up with a different way to make the game more exciting!
This time the focus is on the pace of play. The big proposal this offseason has been the use of a 20- (or 15-) second clock on pitchers. College baseball and Minor League Baseball already use it. Players, especially pitchers, don’t like it.
It’s not the only proposal to improve the pace of play, but it’s getting the most traction this year. Fivethirtyeight is floating a proposed limitation to the number of pitchers teams are allowed to carry on their rosters.
Why? The thought is that constant pitching changes are lengthening games. And as the data show, games have tended to get a bit longer over time. Not only this, but 538 thinks the increasing strikeout rate is reducing the quality of play.
Overblown Concerns
I’m not sold on the problem here, and I’m not a fan of these ‘solutions.’ There are several things here.
One, the data on the length of the game isn’t as convincing as it seems. Before World War II, baseball games were clearly too brief! They often wrapped up in under 2 hours! That’s not even enough time to have a couple of beers and sober up before driving home. Come on now.
If you look at the contemporary era (let’s say post-1970), most of the increase in game length came in the 1980s. It hasn’t changed more than about 5-10 minutes since then. Who even notices that?
Likewise with the strikeout rate. Sure, the strikeout rate has increased. But it really only amounts to a couple of extra strikeouts per game. Do you really notice it while you’re watching? Really? I don’t. Plus, if you limit the number of pitchers on the roster, who are you going to put in those last two slots on the 25-player list? A third DH? Another backup infielder?
Two, the pitch clock isn’t supported by evidence. Are pitchers really taking that long to throw the baseball? Masahiro Tanaka is pretty slow, I’ll grant. But most guys don’t notice the clock, and they come in well under the 20 second timer. Even if Tanaka is taking an extra 4 seconds per pitch, and throws 100 pitches, both generous assumptions, we’re talking about saving 6-7 minutes here. Again, will anyone notice?
Three, and one and two support this, these are solutions in search of a problem.
Keep Baseball Boring
Why not keep baseball boring?
We can probably set the TV audience aside. So the game’s 10-15 longer than you like? So what? Read a book during the commercial breaks. Talk with your family. Get over it.
I’m more concerned about the in-person game experience here. And for that, there are some reasons to like longer games and pitching changes. Why not, for example, think about the strategic aspect of pitching changes? Joe Girardi is a legend for defending his alleged overuse of the bullpen, and it has saved him on occasion.
It’s fun to go to the ballpark, and the pace of play need not interfere with that. Enjoy the summer or fall evening. Grab a few beers, get some food, talk with the people you’re with, and enjoy the experience. Pitching changes are a great time to sneak away for a restroom break.
If you’re at the ballpark for the full 3 hours, so much the better.
