The left didn’t have much skin in the game in 2024. Few of our candidates were on the ballot. And the Democrats chose to turn to the center-right for its votes. 2026 forms an interesting contrast.

DSA candidates, other leftists, and progressive Democrats dominated the headlines during the primaries. DSA bagged several key House primaries, and even a Senate primary. This means we’ll be paying close attention to how these candidates do, partly in order to gauge the success of DSA in its political goals.

DSA even provided us with a handy map of its endorsed candidates. I’ll be watching it on election night.

Political Conditions

In one respect, however, political conditions in 2026 mirror those in 2024. Inflation dominates the political discussion. While last time inflation cut against Democrats, this time it’s hitting the GOP hard. Donald Trump campaigned heavily on fighting inflation, and his failure to deliver results will hurt his party.

Not to mention various missteps around immigration.

This means we’re in yet another change election cycle, much like 2024, 2020, 2018, and 2016. Basically every election in the last decade, save for 2022. And this time, it’s looking great for Democrats. This year’s change will sweep out the GOP and bring in the Democrats.

On top of all this, the Democrats’ pursuit of a highly educated base puts them in a better position for voter turnout in midterm elections. It’s why they overperformed in 2022. And it’s going to add to their already existing advantages in this cycle.

In short, political conditions look terrible for Trump and his allies.

National Election Predictions

On the basis of all this, the pundit consensus says that we’ll have a “blue wave” in 2026. I think that’s likely, though I’ve wrongly predicted a blue wave in at least one previous election (2020). I’d be shocked, however, if it didn’t happen this time.

Democrats will win a lot of races.

The question, though, is how extensive the blue wave will reach. Republican gerrymandering will limit Democratic gains. But there’s a real risk it turns into dummymandering – a condition where a party (the GOP this time) spreads its vote too thinly and loses winnable races. Balancing these forces against one another, here’s what I’ve got: Democrats will win the House 230-208, and Democrats will win the Senate 52-48.

While a House majority is a near certainty for Democrats, the Senate is very much up for grabs. I’m predicting the two parties split the closest races, leaving the Democrats with a thin majority. However, Democrats could plausibly win as few as 50 seats and as many as 55 or even 56, counting the various independent candidates (in Nebraska, Idaho, et al.) as Democrats.

So, Democrats will take the House and probably also the Senate.

Iowa Election Predictions

I’ve predicted two straight Republican sweeps of the Iowa Congressional slate – in 2022 and 2024 – and both predictions came true. This time I predict a return to the conditions of 2018: three Democratic wins (IA-01, IA-02, and IA-03) and one Republican win (IA-04).

But this one is far less certain than 2018. I’m confident the GOP will hold IA-04. I’m also confident that Democrats will win in IA-01. They’ll probably win IA-03, but IA-02 could be quite close. So, while Democrats will likely win 3 seats in Iowa, they could win as few as 1.

We see a similar split of predictability in the gubernatorial and Senate races. Rob Sand is a strong favorite to bring the governorship back to the Democrats, but the Senate seat is a genuine toss-up. I’m predicting a GOP win, but, really, it’s close to 50-50. Democrats will have a Governor, and they might have a Senator.

The most interesting question at the state level concerns Sand’s term in office. He’ll enter without state legislative majorities. And, frankly, without much of a platform or apparent plan to govern. To succeed, he’ll need to figure out how to rebuild the Democratic Party and its brand. And I’m not optimistic he’ll be able to do this.

While Sand can win, can he govern?

Only time will tell.

N.B.

Readers can find my previous election prediction posts here: 2024, 2022, 2020, 2018.

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