Here’s the short answer to the title of this post: No.
But for a slightly longer answer, I’ll point out that many things could happen. Kim Reynolds could get caught driving drunk while cheating on her husband. Chuck Grassley could die from old age. And so on. But assuming nothing outrageous happens, Democrats won’t win the major federal or statewide races this fall. They will lose Iowa in 2022. Normal campaigning and GOTV efforts won’t be enough to win.
Incidentally, wealthier Democratic donors and party officials already know this. It’s a big part of why donors haven’t given as much money as usual by this point. A few progressives in the state have even criticized Democrats for ‘throwing in the towel.’
State vs. Local Iowa Democrats
The GOP will paste Democrats in statewide and federal Iowa races. Democrats have effectively no chance at winning the gubernatorial or senate races. On the other hand, Tom Miller could win a 50th term. Rob Sand could win re-election as state auditor, though that’s far from a given. And Cindy Axne could win re-election to the House, though that’s 50-50 at best. That’s really about it.
However, we find a very different story in certain pockets (i.e., liberal bubbles) of the state. But even the exceptions aren’t entirely unrelated to the state of affairs statewide. In places like Johnson County – where I live – we’ll see the polar opposite in November. Democrats will likely win every race, and the GOP will struggle for relevance. Even Jon Green – an actual leftist – won his Democratic primary race in Johnson County.
What does the GOP even have on offer in Johnson County? Perennial candidate and Lyndon LaRouche wannabe Phil Hemingway is all geared up for yet another loss. Rumor has it they even nominated a second candidate for Supervisor this time. Not that it matters much. Both will lose. With some luck, one of them could top 40%. But don’t bet on it.
Revisiting the 2030 Coalition
This isn’t exactly the first time I’ve pointed to the Democrats’ struggles in the state. I touched on it in my coverage of Fred Hubbell and Cathy Glasson. But I pointed it out much more explicitly in my call for Iowa Democrats to build a 2030 coalition. You know, a coalition that could win some day (though not today)! Did they do that?
Of course not.
It’s just not what they want to do. And their current coalition of white moderates, suburbanites, and very party-loyal, high-SES liberals and progressives don’t want them to do it.
Little has changed since then. The basic path to power for Iowa Democrats remains the same. They need to reach out to non-voters – especially working-class people of all races, immigrants, and young people. They need to prepare for a future where these groups make up a much larger share of the voting population. Their current strategy of pitching campaigns at moderates, suburbanites, and seniors will slightly increase their chances of winning in the short term. But it’s still not enough to actually win, and it will damage their ability to win in the longer term.
So, Iowa Democrats mostly wasted the last year or two. They’re no closer now than they were a year or two ago to building the party they need to build. Their ‘win now’ short-termism won’t pay off this November. And it won’t pay off later, either.
