Alienation, autonomy, and ideology

Category: Partisan Politics (Page 2 of 20)

Rob Sand and the 2030 Coalition

Iowa Democrats have spent nearly a decade and a half in the wilderness. The trip started around the time Chet Culver lost his bid for re-election in 2010. It never stopped.

From that point, Democrats lost statewide races from the top of the ballot to the bottom, with Obama’s 2012 win one of the few successes. State Auditor Rob Sand, who we’ll talk about shortly, is another.

Why?

It’s a long story. That story runs through the decline of unions, political shifts in the 2010s, and partisan realignment by educational attainment. Every left of center Iowan has their own (usually self-serving) story to tell. But each one ends the same way – Iowa Democrats are left playing for a firm minority of the electorate.

They’ve done little to solve the problem.

Several years ago, I called for Iowa Democrats to build a 2030 coalition. Why? With Iowa’s hard turn to the right, it’s unlikely their current coalition will win. So, they should build a future coalition that can win. That coalition rests on the strength of young people, political independents, non-whites (especially Latinos), and immigrants. These are all growing populations who often don’t vote for Democrats.

But Iowa Democrats weren’t interested in a 2030 coalition. They wanted to win now.

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Polarized by Degrees: College and American Politics

Readers know I do a monthly book roundup, where I write briefly about 4 or 5 books I’ve recently read. But every now and then, I find myself wanting to say more about a particular book. Polarized by Degrees by Matt Grossmann and David A. Hopkins is one of those.

For one, it’s timely. Most of us know there’s something wrong with U.S. politics, even at the level of everyday discussion. Things get heated and contentious. Many Americans – particularly members of marginalized groups – feel unwelcome in their own country. And we see rising levels of hate crimes, often with politicians openly egging them on.

This situation leads some of us to look for the source of the unrest. What divides us?

According to the chattering classes, especially pundits, identity forms the dividing force. We see this from both progressive and conservative ends, with the former blaming racism and/or toxic masculinity and the latter blaming the ‘woke mind virus’ or some such. It has gotten to the point where I use the term ‘identitarianism‘ to get at the assumption shared by both progressives and right-wingers that politics and/or political explanation reduce to identity.

After the dust settled from the 2024 election, people combed through the data to see how the vote broke down by demographic groups. And, of course, they brought their identitarian assumptions to the table. They wanted to know how race and gender drove the vote. Because what else could have done it?

And so they brought out the standard playbook of questions. Did Harris lose because ‘ugh, white women again!’? Did she lose because black men ‘abandoned’ her?

In Polarized by Degrees, Grossmann and Hopkins suggest something else matters more than identity.

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DNC Steps on Own Dick, Again

After the 2016 and 2020 primary losses, many Bernie Sanders supporters argued that the DNC ‘rigged’ the primaries, costing the Bern the win.

The argument wasn’t a good one. DNC leaders certainly favored Hillary Clinton in 2016. And they certainly opposed Sanders in 2020, even if they weren’t necessary thrilled by Joe Biden. In 2016, in particular, there was even evidence that they put their thumb on the scales in certain ways.

As I’ve argued many times, though, the ‘rigged’ accusations amounted to excuse making from left and progressive electoralist camps. The biggest reason Sanders lost in 2016 and 2020 is that the left has been at a historical weak point for years. We haven’t yet done the base-building needed to become powerful enough for a credible presidential campaign.

But that’s not the point of this post. The point is that the DNC always manages to step on its own dick. Even when the things it does don’t really have a major impact, it always manages to look like it’s engaged in some kind of fuckery.

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Revisiting the Worst Political Issues

Three years ago, I wrote a post about the worst political issue for the GOP and the Democrats. After investigating the topic, I focused on balanced budges for the GOP and gun control for the Democrats.

What made those issues stand out is that there’s a wide gap between generic voters preferences and how strongly voters feel about the issues. Voters like balanced budgets in the abstract. But as soon as you turn to tax increases or spending cuts – how you balance budgets in the first place – voters are far less interested. And while many people like gun control, most have no direct experience with actual gun violence.

But it’s 3 years later. Let’s check in to see whether they’ve learned anything.

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Two Definitions of ‘Working Class’

Just about everyone who tries to explain Kamala Harris’s loss loves talking about the working class. They point to Harris’s loss of the working-class vote as a starting point. And then they explain the decline of the Democratic Party’s electoral fortunes as a decline in their support among workers in states like Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Of course, they draw very different conclusions from this starting point.

Bernie Sanders, for instance, explained Harris’s loss as a loss of support among black and Latino working-class voters. Others, more friendly to the professional classes, thought Harris alienated working-class voters by running too far to the left on social issues. But they shared a focus on loss of working-class votes in swing states.

At one level, that’s a fair enough starting point. Harris did lose the aforementioned states after Biden won them in 2020.

But the politicians and pundits glide through these debates without justifying how they define the term ‘working class.’ And it’s no mere academic debate.

How you define the word matters. A lot. Competing definitions put entirely different groups of people into the ‘working class.’ They thereby recommend very different strategies and tactics for bringing them back into the fold.

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