Going into the first debate between Biden and Trump, it wasn’t clear how the debate could even impact the race. Why? Because the polls have been consistent for months. Most Americans see the election as a referendum on Trump. Most of Trump’s voters love Trump. And most of Biden’s voters hate Trump. Few in either camp hold many strong opinions on Biden.
Americans mostly settled into these opinions months ago – even years ago. Since March 2019, Trump’s approval ratings have never deviated below 41% or higher than 47%. And they almost always move between 43% and 45%. This means about 43-45% of the country loves him, and just about everyone else hates him. The polls proceed accordingly. Presidents rarely overperform their approval rating, and Trump is no exception. And so, we see the polls against Biden put him at around…43%. Big surprise. Biden wins most of the voters who don’t like him. Again…big surprise.
The New York Times tax stories certainly did no favors for Trump, either. As a result of these things, it seemed unlikely the first debate would change anything.
First Debate
And it didn’t. Or did it?
Trump sabotaged the debate. He diverted, interrupted, and re-directed it toward disaster. He annoyed Biden, and that produced some results for him. At one point, Biden declared himself the Democratic Party. And at several other points, he bashed Bernie Sanders and the Sanders platform. But Trump failed to capitalize on any of this. I think most viewers became so annoyed at Trump that they barely noticed anything Biden said.
Polls suggest Biden ‘won.’ But winning didn’t amount to much here. Opinion hardened some time ago, and I suspect Biden will retain the 6-8 point lead he had going in to the first debate.
A Failed State?
But the first debate might have changed the race in other ways. Biden wants to present the presidential race as a broader referendum on U.S. democracy. And Trump’s performance probably did some of that work for him. Anyone watching the debate probably had at least one moment where they wondered how this man could possibly be the President of the United States. They may want to re-read Noam Chomsky’s book on this topic.
Trump turned it into a total joke. And so, if there’s an impact from the first debate, it’s that.
